Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

English Español Deutsch Français 日本語

This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

SEVENTEEN-E Current Status

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 80 knots / 90 MPH at

SEVENTEEN-E Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
Belize
El Salvador
Informes Especiales

SEVENTEEN-E Tracker

SEVENTEEN-E Satellite Loop

visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E from wisc.edu

visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E from wisc.edu

SEVENTEEN-E Alternate Tracking Map

SEVENTEEN-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for SEVENTEEN-E can be found here:

SEVENTEEN-E spaghetti models page »

SEVENTEEN-E Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E Public Advisory

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221453
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 100.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Seventeen-E was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 100.5 
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 
km/h).  A slowing of forward speed followed by a turn to the 
northwest is expected by tonight.  A turn to the north-northwest 
should occur late this weekend.  On the forecast track, the system 
would be approaching the coast of southwestern Mexico early next 
week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become 
a tropical storm by tonight, and a hurricane over the weekend.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall:  Tropical Depression Seventeen will produce 5 to 10 inches
of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and
Colima starting Saturday night.  This will likely produce flash
flooding and mudslides.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221457
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021
 
Over the past 24 h, the convective organization has steadily 
increased in association with the area of low pressure to the 
southwest of southern Mexico. Overnight, an ASCAT overpass showed 
that the system still lacked a well-defined low-level center. 
However, since that time visible satellite imagery reveals that the 
disturbance has become much better organized and that a tropical 
cyclone has formed. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates from both TAFB and SAB were T-2.0/30 kt, and therefore 
30 kt is the initial advisory intensity.

The tropical depression is moving 280/9 kt to the south of a 
mid-tropospheric ridge. A deep-layer trough is forecast to dig 
southeastward toward the western United States this weekend and 
early next week, which should create a weakness in the ridge to the 
north of the cyclone. This would cause the depression to slow its 
forward motion and turn northwest or north-northwest towards this 
weakness. There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance 
beyond 24 h, as the various models have different solutions as to 
how abrupt of a turn to the right the cyclone will make in response 
to the change in the steering flow. The NHC track forecast is near 
the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA, and the TVCE guidance. Based on 
the current NHC forecast track, the cyclone would be nearing the 
coast of southwestern Mexico in 72 h, and inland by 96 h. However, 
due to the larger-than-normal model spread beyond 24 h, that 
portion of the forecast track is not particularly of high 
confidence. 

The cyclone is expected to be within an ideal environment for 
strengthening over the next couple of days, with very little 
vertical wind shear, a moist airmass, and sea surface temperatures 
near 30 degrees C. Therefore, steady intensification is indicated by 
all of the model guidance through 60 h. There is some weakening 
indicated by the models at 72 h, around the time the system would be 
nearing the coast of Mexico,  which could be due to some dry air 
entraining into the cyclone's circulation. The NHC intensity 
forecast is near the IVCN consensus solution through 72 h but below 
HCCA. Beyond landfall, the intensity forecast is near the 
Decay-SHIPS prediction. It should be noted that the SHIPS Rapid 
Intensification guidance indicates a greater than 60 percent chance 
of a 55-kt increase in strength over the next 60 h and 65 kt over 
the next 72 h. 

Based on the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii, Tropical 
Storm or Hurricane Watches may be issued for a portion of the 
southwestern Mexico coast as early as tonight. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 12.7N 100.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 13.0N 101.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 13.9N 101.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 14.6N 102.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 15.3N 102.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 16.2N 103.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 17.3N 103.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 19.8N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  27/1200Z 22.0N 104.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Latto

SEVENTEEN-E storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 12.7, -100.5
40 knots 13.0, -101.3
50 knots 13.9, -101.9
65 knots 14.6, -102.3
75 knots 15.3, -102.7
80 knots 16.2, -103.1
75 knots 17.3, -103.5
35 knots 19.8, -104.0 translation missing: en.INLAND
20 knots 22.0, -104.3 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/INLAND


Hurricane Forecast   |   Tropical Storm Risk   |   Hurricane Spaghetti Models   |   Cyclone and Hurricane Names

Cyclocane   |   National Hurricane Center   |   Joint Typhoon Warning Center   |   Japan Meteorological Agency

site by Hayley Croft

Want to help support this site?

Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane.

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.