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Hurricane Spaghetti Models

First, read more about What are spaghetti models? and Why would I want to view spaghetti models?

Individual storm spaghetti models

Interactive spaghetti model map

  • zoom to 02 WP -- show/hide intensity predictions
  • 02 WP spaghetti models

    Highest predicted winds
    • Median: 122.0 knots
    • Average: 120.28571428571429 knots
    Highest predicted winds of all models
    • CHP6: 172 knots
    • CTCX: 137 knots
    • NVGM: 136 knots
    • CHP2: 134 knots
    • CHIP: 130 knots
    • CHP4: 128 knots
    • CHP5: 122 knots
    • HWRF: 122 knots
    • CHP3: 111 knots
    • AP30: 111 knots
    • COTC: 108 knots
    • AVNX: 107 knots
    • AP29: 104 knots
    • CHP7: 62 knots

Experimental Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph for 02WP

Spaghetti Models from South Florida Water Management District

Spaghetti Models Data is from the South Florida Water Management District

Future Tropical Cyclones

When new storms reach tropical storm strength, they will receive the following names:


What are spaghetti models?

What are spaghetti models? Spaghetti models (also called spaghetti plots) is the nickname given to the computer models that show potential tropical cyclone paths. When shown together, the individual model tracks can somewhat resemble strands of spaghetti.

Why would I want to view spaghetti models? In short, it gives you a way to see where a tropical storm or hurricane may head. It can also give insight into whether the models are in agreement on the path of the storm (for instance, all models show Florida in the path of a hurricane) or if there is a wide differing opinion on where the storm may go. For instance, in the case of Tropical Storm Debby, the original NHC storm path had her going straight west to Texas, but if you viewed the spaghetti models at that time, you would have had a glimpse into just how uncertain Debby's path was. Debby's spaghetti models had her making landfall from anywhere from Texas to Florida to everywhere in between.

Spaghetti models are also useful in the case of a developing storm system that has not officially become a tropical depression or a tropical storm, meaning that no agency has released an official path. In these instances, spaghetti models can serve to give you an early heads up as to where a future tropical storm or hurricane may head.

However, once a tropical disturbance has officially become a tropical cyclone, different government agencies (e.g. the National Hurricane Center for the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins) release an official best guess path based on their analysis of the different model data and other factors. These forecasts should be used for official planning, though the spaghetti plots can still be quite useful for seeing how confident all of the models are (e.g., in the case of Debby listed above).

The Different Spaghetti Models

Hurricane Forecast   |   Tropical Storm Risk   |   Hurricane Spaghetti Models   |   Cyclone and Hurricane Names

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