hurricane forecast / tropical weather outlook

Eastern Pacific Basin

Eastern Pacific Active Storms

20% chance in 48 hours / 60% chance in 5 days

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad trough of low pressure. A low-pressure system is expected to develop along this trough within the next couple of days, and environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development of this disturbance later this week. A tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, offshore of and parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan during the next few days, and these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Atlantic Basin

Atlantic Active Storms

Post-Tropical Cyclone BILL

70% chance in 48 hours / 90% chance in 5 days

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system will move little today and tonight, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Cyclocane