Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.8S 
34.6E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAK, BROAD LOW LEVEL 
TURNING OVERLAND IN EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE. A 171443Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE 
INDICATES THERE IS DISORGANIZED, SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE GENERAL 
VICINITY. 94S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 
KTS) AND WEAK DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKER TOWARDS THE 
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, 94S WILL ENCOUNTER LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 
KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAPID 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE 
EASTWARD BUT VARY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF ITS EMERGENCE OVER WATER AND 
THE STRENGTH OF ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE SPECTRUM OF INTENSITY VARIES FROM 
GFS HAVING BORDERLINE DEVELOPMENT TO ECMWF INDICATING 94S WILL REACH 
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
back to the top

Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 2.2N 166.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 237 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. 
A 170712Z WINDSAT 37GHZ SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION EXTENDING 
NORTH FROM THE LLC WITH FORMATIVE MID-LEVEL BANDIND. A 171040Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20 
KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W 
WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CURVING TO 
THE NORTH AND BEGINNING QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 170600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
16.1S 164.3E, APPROXIMATELY 249 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, 
VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
back to the top

Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:52 pm WST on Sunday 17 February 2019
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 20 February 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop
over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   
Wednesday       Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 17 February 2019
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 20 February 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected
to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday          very low.  
Tuesday         Very low.  
Wednesday       Very low.  



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 17 February 2019
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 20 February 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

At 12pm AEST Sunday, tropical cyclone Oma, category 2, was located west of
Vanuatu, about 450km east of the Eastern Region. Tropical cyclone Oma is
forecast to move southwest over the coming days, before turning southeast later
in the week. Refer to the Fiji Meteorological Service web page for the latest
details of tropical cyclone Oma: http://www.met.gov.fj

Oma's southwesterly track makes it moderately likely that the system could
enter eastern parts of the Eastern Region from about mid-week, and possibly
linger there through next weekend. At this stage, Oma is likely to stay away
from the Australian east coast. However, hazardous swells and waves are likely
through the latter half of the week and next weekend, in particular about the
southern coast of Queensland where dangerous conditions are expected on top of
the king tides on exposed beaches.

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region, and none are
expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Low        
Wednesday       Moderate   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

back to the top

Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 170900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 170911 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
164.3E AT 170600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS. 

FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA.

*********************************************************************
*************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

back to the top

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051541
TWOEP 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 AM PST Sat Jan 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure system centered
about 1100 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become less organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions have become unfavorable and tropical or
subtropical cyclone development is not anticipated. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. This is the last Special
Tropical Weather Outlook that will be issued on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May
15, 2019.  During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and are
available on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302336
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

back to the top

Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 010540
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 central North Pacific hurricane season. Routine issuance
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
back to the top

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


back to the top


Hurricane Forecast   |   Tropical Storm Risk   |   Hurricane Spaghetti Models   |   Cyclone and Hurricane Names

Cyclocane   |   National Hurricane Center   |   Joint Typhoon Warning Center   |   Japan Meteorological Agency

site by Hayley Croft

Want to help support this site?

Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane.

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.