Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17FEB20 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 75.4E, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT (KT) OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 171500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
back to the top

Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.7S 177.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 176.5W, APPROXIMATELY 
382 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170946Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT AN EXTENSIVE, ELONGATED AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION 
EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED, WEAK LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. INVEST 96P IS EXPERIENCING GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT SEVERAL OF THOSE 
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS 
THEY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. INVEST 96P IS PLACED IN A LIKELY REGION 
FOR ONE OF THOSE CIRCULATIONS TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6S 170.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 167.1W, APPROXIMATELY 
352 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CIRCULATION 
WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE 
SOUTHEAST. A 171739Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED, 
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 172053Z ASCAT-B SHOWS 
STRONG (45-50 KT) ASYMMETRIC WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LLCC 
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KT) WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING GOOD EQUATORWARD AND 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND 
VERY HIGH (40-50 KTS) VERTICAL, IN-PHASE, WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS 
AGREE THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL 
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
back to the top

Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 17 February 2020
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 20 February 2020.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are expected
to develop in the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday         Very Low   
Wednesday       Very Low   
Thursday        Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 17 February 2020
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 20 February 2020.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  


There are no significant tropical lows in the region. A tropical low is
expected to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria around Thursday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday         Very Low.  
Wednesday       Very Low.  
Thursday        Very Low.  


From late this week a monsoon trough is expected to form in the eastern Arafura
Sea and northern Gulf of Carpentaria. A tropical low is expected to develop
within the Gulf of Carpentaria with favourable conditions for development over
the weekend.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 17 February 2020
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 20 February 2020.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A trough extends across the northern Coral Sea with a weak tropical low
situated along the trough in the far northeastern Coral Sea. This system is
expected to move further east away from the Eastern Region.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday         Very low   
Wednesday       Very low   
Thursday        Very low   


There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are
expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday         Very low   
Wednesday       Very low   

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

back to the top

Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 172100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 172337 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.2S
178.8E AT 172100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS AND EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
 
*********************************************************************
***************

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F CENTRE 998HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.3S 166.3W
AT 172100UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS AND EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD08F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 13
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO EAST OF AN UPPER
TROUGH IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP
TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

back to the top

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010504
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sat Nov 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2019 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2020.  During
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302332
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

back to the top

Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 010527
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Sat Nov 30 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

This is the final routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook
for 2019. We will resume issuing these outlooks starting on June 1,
2020. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as conditions warrant. 

$$
Forecaster Houston
back to the top

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


back to the top


Hurricane Forecast   |   Tropical Storm Risk   |   Hurricane Spaghetti Models   |   Cyclone and Hurricane Names

Cyclocane   |   National Hurricane Center   |   Joint Typhoon Warning Center   |   Japan Meteorological Agency

site by Hayley Croft

Want to help support this site?

Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane.

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.