Cyclocane

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Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1S
101.8E, APPROXIMATELY 256 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT
WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30NOV21 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 300300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 106.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 101.0E, APPROXIMATELY 179
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 300222Z PARTIAL ASCAT
METOP-B PASS REVEALS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH A 292358Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT INVEST 94W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
DEFINED BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, BUT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INVEST 94W WILL TRACK OVER THAILAND AND
DECREASE IN INTENSITY BUT WILL REORGANIZE IN THE ANDAMAN SEA BY TAU
48. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY IN THE BAY OF BENGAL, AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TRACKING NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 30 November 2021
for the period until midnight WST Friday 3 December 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak tropical low (04U) may form near Bali on Wednesday. It should drift
south to southwest over the next few days, and by Friday it may lie near 12S,
somewhere between 110E and 120E. It is unlikely to develop significantly, and
will most likely dissipate on the weekend.

Another tropical low (05U) was located near 6.8S 102.0E at 8am AWST Tuesday,
about 575 kilometres northwest of Christmas Island and 520 kilometres west of
Jakarta. It should drift towards the southeast over the next few days, but it
is highly likely to remain north of the Western Region. It should start
weakening from Friday onwards.

No other significant systems are expected in the Western Region for at least
the next three days.

Likelihood of a system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday       Very Low   
Thursday        Very Low   
Friday          Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 30 November 2021
for the period until midnight CST Friday 3 December 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday       Very Low   
Thursday        Very Low   
Friday          Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 30 November 2021
for the period until midnight EST Friday 3 December 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the Eastern Region and none are
expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday       Very Low   
Thursday        Very Low   
Friday          Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 290600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 290831 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300514
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Beven

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 300511
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 300517
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Mon Nov 29 2021

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ends on 
November 30. The final Tropical Weather Outlook of the season 
will be issued at 8 PM HST on November 30. We will resume 
issuing outlooks starting on June 1 of 2022.

$$
Forecaster Bohlin
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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


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