( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.
Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK, PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 191321Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION EXTENDING EAST OVER LAND NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR MUMBAI HAVE RECORDED LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND. 96A IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY, DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE KATHIAWAR PENINSULA, BEFORE ACCELERATING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN WEAK, LIKELY NOT REACHING THE BASIN WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS. NAVGEM IS THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY, THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FARTHER NORTH, TAKING THE STORM INTO THE GULF OF OMAN AND EVENTUALLY THE PERSIAN GULF AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS ASSESSED AS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNNback to the top
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 20SEP19 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 18W (TAPAH) WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNNback to the top
IDW10800 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region Issued at 2:15 pm WST on Thursday 19 September 2019 for the period until midnight WST Sunday 22 September 2019. Existing Cyclones in the Western Region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: There are no significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on: Friday Very Low Saturday Very Low Sunday Very Low NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day. Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50% Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50% The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532). Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Outlook unavailable. Check back during cyclone season.
Outlook unavailable. Check back during cyclone season.
WWPS21 NFFN 210600 Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 210845 UTC. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD12F CENTRE [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.7S 176.8E AT 210600UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED WITH CENTER EXPOSED AND ORGANISATION POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HIGH SHEAR LIES TO THE SOUTH WITH DRY AIR. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW MOVING WESTERLY WITH NO INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS IT REINTENSIFIES. ********************************************************************* *************** NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 200529 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lorena, located near the Islas Marias. Shower activity is currently limited in association with a weak area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. This system is expected to move northeastward and merge with Kiko this weekend and development is not anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
000 ABNT20 KNHC 200528 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jerry, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and some development is possible while it approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend. Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the wave moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea just south of Hispaniola is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east and northeast of its center of circulation. This system is expected to move slowly west- northwestward and significant development is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosiback to the top
ACPN50 PHFO 200539 TWOCP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM HST Thu Sep 19 2019 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: No tropical cyclones are expected through the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster TSback to the top
site by Hayley Croft