Cyclocane

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Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 150000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 27.0N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF D (WTPN34 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 150000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (HECTOR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 29.3N 170.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1317 NM NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON 
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 150300) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) AT 150000Z, TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
20.8N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD 
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN33 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) AT 150000Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
33.7N 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 41 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (5) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.5N 148.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142324Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FLARING CONVECTION NEAR A BROAD, BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED REGION OF CONVECTION 
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE 
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND IN WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS) THROUGH THE MARIANAS REGION THAT ARE 
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH IS AIDING OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A COMPLICATED PICTURE, AS 99W INTERACTS 
WITH ANOTHER ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST. THE NEAR TERM 
TRACK IS GENERALLY WESTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD THEREAFTER AS THE TWO 
SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO INTERACT. DIFFERENT MODELS DEPICT THE TWO 
DISTURBANCES EITHER MERGING, WHICH IS MORE FAVORED, OR DEVELOPING 
INDEPENDENTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF E (WTPN22 
PGTW 142230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.7N 167.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1315 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 142243Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS 
THERE MAY BE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN 
AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE 
WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING 
CRITERIA LIKELY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 15 August 2018
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 18 August 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are
expected to develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday        Very Low   
Friday          Very Low   
Saturday        Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

Outlook unavailable. Check back during cyclone season.

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

Outlook unavailable. Check back during cyclone season.

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 122100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 122354 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
584 
ABPZ20 KNHC 151136
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E, located over 1000 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
757 
ABNT20 KNHC 151129
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Subtropical Depression Five located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 151134
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Wed Aug 15 2018

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

An area of disturbed weather is located about 575 miles southwest of
Lihue, Hawaii. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the feature
remain disorganized. Upper level winds are expected to inhibit any
significant development of the system over the next few days as it
moves northwest. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 
days.

$$
Forecaster Kinel
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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


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