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Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 18S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
18.1S 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, 
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A WELL-
ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE 
SOUTH. A 190156Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS WITH NO 
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 
A PARTIAL 190108Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE 
DUE PRIMARILY TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS, OFFSET BY LOW VWS, ROBUST POLEWARD VENTING, AND WARM SST (27-
28 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING 
OF THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM. GFS 
INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE ECMWF INDICATES 
A LESS AGGRESSIVE 2-3 DAY REDEVELOPMENT TIMELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18MAR24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MEGAN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
16.0S 136.7E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 180900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 25 September 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 28 September 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday         Very Low   
Wednesday       Very Low   
Thursday        Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 30 April 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 3 May 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There currently no significant tropical lows in the region, and none are
expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   
Wednesday       Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 30 April 2023
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 3 May 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region, and none are
expected to develop in the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   
Wednesday       Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 190600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 190807 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD12F [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S 161.0E
AT 190600UTC. TD12F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9
EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. 

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE
CONVERGENT FLOW. TD12F LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW MOVING WITH
NO INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

********************************************************************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010500
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Thu Nov 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2023 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance of 
the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024.  During 
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as 
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302312
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical 
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, 
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions 
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 031144 CCA
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected 
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 
800 PM HST Thu Nov 30 2023

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ends today, 
November 30. The is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather 
Outlook of the 2023 central North Pacific Hurricane Season. Routine 
issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 
2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather outlooks will 
be issued as conditions warrant. 

$$
Forecaster Bohlin
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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


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