Cyclocane

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Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23JAN20 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 24.7S 71.7E, APPROXIMATELY 845 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 231500) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.9S 48.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 50.3E, APPROXIMATELY 260 
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231527Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE 
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 231713Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT LLC 
WITH 30 KT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CENTER. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING 
INVEST 95S INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 232100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 18.9S 55.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 62.4E, APPROXIMATELY 265 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 231144Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOW AN AREA OF SHALLOW, 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OFFSET FROM A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. INVEST 97S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT DEPICTING 97S INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.2S 170W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 170.3W, APPROXIMATELY 31 NM 
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240422Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING 
CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 
96P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
96P WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN
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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 24 January 2020
for the period until midnight WST Monday 27 January 2020.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next 3 days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 24 January 2020
for the period until midnight CST Monday 27 January 2020.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A tropical low is located over the Northern Territory near Cresswell Downs in
the northern Barkly District. This tropical low is expected to be slow-moving
during the next few days but may move a little closer to the Gulf of
Carpentaria coast next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday        Very Low.  
Sunday          Very Low.  
Monday          Very Low.  



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:45 pm EST on Friday 24 January 2020
for the period until midnight EST Monday 27 January 2020.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

None.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the Eastern Region and none are
expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday        Very low   
Sunday          Very low   
Monday          Very low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 240900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 240911 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE 1005 HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.2S
170.0W AT 240600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD05F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700 HPA. SYSTEM LIES
IN A UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.     

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.


NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010504
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sat Nov 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2019 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2020.  During
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302332
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 010527
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Sat Nov 30 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

This is the final routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook
for 2019. We will resume issuing these outlooks starting on June 1,
2020. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as conditions warrant. 

$$
Forecaster Houston
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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


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