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Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25JUL21 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 149.9E, APPROXIMATELY 648 NM SOUTHEAST OF 
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 
250300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 25JUL21 0000Z, TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
29.7N 122.9E, APPROXIMATELY 116 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 250300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 25 July 2021
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 28 July 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical systems in the region and none are expected
to develop in the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   
Wednesday       Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 30 April 2021
for the period until midnight CST Monday 3 May 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   


This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region until 1
November 2021.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 30 April 2021
for the period until midnight EST Monday 3 May 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

None.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the Eastern Region and none are
expected to develop during the next three days.

This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the 2020/21 season. The
next issue will be on 1 November 2021.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 110000
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jun 110046 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252322
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 25 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east-southeast of 
the Hawaiian Islands continues to move westward at about 15 mph.  
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system have persisted 
for much of the day, but they remain displaced to the northwest and 
north of the circulation center.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to remain conducive for some additional development during 
the next day or so, and only a slight increase in the organization 
of the system would result in the development of a tropical 
depression.  The low is forecast to move into the Central Pacific 
basin on Monday morning, and on Tuesday conditions are expected to 
become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop by midweek a few 
hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  
Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this 
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 
mph, remaining a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of 
southern Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 252313
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and radar data indicate that showers associated with a low 
pressure area located about 150 miles east-southeast of 
Jacksonville, Florida, remain disorganized and limited in coverage.  
However, environmental conditions are marginally conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could still form overnight or 
on Monday while the low moves slowly west-northwestward or 
northwestward, reaching the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia 
Monday evening or Monday night.  Interests in these areas should 
continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 252337
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Sun Jul 25 2021

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is monitoring an 
area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east-southeast of 
Hilo, Hawaii as it continues to move westward at about 15 mph. 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system have persisted 
for much of the day, but they remain displaced to the northwest and 
north of the circulation center.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to remain conducive for some additional development during 
the next day or so, and only a slight increase in the organization 
of the system would result in the development of a tropical 
depression. The low is forecast to move into the Central Pacific 
basin on Monday morning, and on Tuesday conditions are expected to 
become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 
days.

$$
Forecaster TS
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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


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