Cyclocane

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Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.5N 90.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 89.5E, APPROXIMATELY 580 
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE 
SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL 
GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING 
AND INTENSITY. MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL 
STRENGTH WITH IN THE NEXT 30-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7S 
93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 782 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DISORGANIZED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR WITH LIGHT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY 
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, WITH 
SOME MODELS SHOWING 91S REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 6-
12 HOURS OF THE MODEL RUN.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.0N 174.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 169.5E, APPROXIMATELY 120 
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY, A 120407Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 112219Z METOP-A 
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT A SHARP WAVE WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY WITHIN THE CONVERGENT TROPICAL EASTERLIES. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C) IN THE 
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 120000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
14.7S 137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:51 pm WST on Wednesday 12 December 2018
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 15 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no tropical lows in the Western region and none are expected to
develop in the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:
Thursday        Very Low   
Friday          Very Low   
Saturday        Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:34 pm CST on Wednesday 12 December 2018
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 15 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

At 12:30pm ACST Wednesday 12 December, Tropical Cyclone Owen was located in the
Gulf of Carpentaria near 14.8S 137.4E 125 kilometres southeast of Groote
Eylandt and moving west at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Owen is located over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and is
expected to be slow moving during Wednesday. On Thursday Owen is then forecast
to change course to move eastwards and back towards the Queensland coast. It
may reach category 3 intensity by Thursday morning if conditions remain
favourable. A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast
between Burketown to Pormpuraw during Friday afternoon is most likely. Refer to
the latest tropical cyclone warnings for further details
[www.bom.gov.au/cyclone].

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday        High.      
Friday          High.      
Saturday        Low.       



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 12 December 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 15 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

None.

Potential Cyclones:  

At 1pm AEST Wednesday, tropical cyclone Owen, category 2, was located over the
western Gulf of Carpentaria. Refer to the latest tropical cyclone advices and
the Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the northern region for details on the short
term forecast for tropical cyclone Owen [www.bom.gov.au/cyclone].

Tropical cyclone Owen is expected to turn to the east and cross the western
Cape York Peninsula coast late on Friday. Beyond that, it is expected to turn
southeast and move down through eastern Queensland as a tropical low. It should
remain over land close to the coast, but there is a chance that it will move
offshore into the Coral Sea. If this were to occur, Owen may redevelop yet
again into a tropical cyclone. This is considered a low probability of
occurrence at this stage.

Note that whether or not ex-Owen redevelops, it will remain a vigorous system
and is expected to bring very heavy rainfall and damaging (possibly
destructive) winds to east coastal districts of Queensland on the weekend and
into early next week.

Another weak tropical low was located in the western Coral Sea, around 220km
northeast of Bowen. This system is expected to remain weak whilst shifting west
towards the northeast tropical coast over the next 24 hours. It has a very low
chance of forming into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday        Very Low   
Friday          Very Low   
Saturday        Low        



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 120600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 120802 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010503
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.  Routine issuance
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2019.
During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be
issued as conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302336
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 010540
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 central North Pacific hurricane season. Routine issuance
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


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