Cyclocane

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Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
18.0N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK, PARTIALLY 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE 
WEST. A 191321Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ARC OF 
DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION EXTENDING 
EAST OVER LAND NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
NEAR MUMBAI HAVE RECORDED LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND. 96A 
IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY, DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 
HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE 
NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE KATHIAWAR 
PENINSULA, BEFORE ACCELERATING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN WEAK, LIKELY NOT REACHING THE BASIN 
WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS.  NAVGEM IS THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IN 
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY, THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FARTHER NORTH, 
TAKING THE STORM INTO THE GULF OF OMAN AND EVENTUALLY THE PERSIAN 
GULF AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC 
ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS ASSESSED AS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20SEP19 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 18W (TAPAH) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.0N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA 
AB, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:15 pm WST on Thursday 19 September 2019
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 22 September 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are
expected to develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday          Very Low   
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

Outlook unavailable. Check back during cyclone season.

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

Outlook unavailable. Check back during cyclone season.

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 210600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 210845 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD12F CENTRE [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.7S
176.8E AT 210600UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. 

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED WITH CENTER EXPOSED AND ORGANISATION POOR.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HIGH SHEAR LIES TO THE SOUTH WITH DRY AIR. SST
IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW MOVING
WESTERLY WITH NO INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR THIS SYSTEM
UNLESS IT REINTENSIFIES.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200529
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Lorena, located near the Islas Marias.

Shower activity is currently limited in association with a weak area
of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii.  This system is expected to move northeastward and
merge with Kiko this weekend and development is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 200528
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jerry, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during
the next few days, and some development is possible while it
approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend.
Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the
wave moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea
just south of Hispaniola is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the east and northeast of its center of
circulation. This system is expected to move slowly west-
northwestward and significant development is unlikely due to
strong upper-level winds. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 200539
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Thu Sep 19 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected through the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster TS
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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


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