Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.3S 81.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 80.5E, APPROXIMATELY 499
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, DISORGANIZED AND ILL DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS NOW DEPICTS SOMEWHAT
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT
AND WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), BUT VERY STRONG (30-
40KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. SEE
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 211830) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
back to the top

Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 151.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY
382 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. A 211052Z METOP-B PASS SHOWS THAT A
DISCREET LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
SURROUNDED BY 12-17 KNOT WINDS. A BAND OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS EXTENDS
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 210811Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE ROTATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH A POINT
SOURCE OR ANTICYCLONE ALOFT DIRECTION OVERHEAD THE LLCC, LOW (10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
99W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT ON THE DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT. GFS, ITS
ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, INDICATING FAIRLY
RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR LESS, PRIOR TO PASSAGE THROUGH
THE MARIANAS ISLAND CHAIN. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE MUCH MORE
RESERVED, INDICATING LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU 48,
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS. OF NOTE, THE ASCAT PASS VERIFIED
THE 1200Z GFS MODEL FORECAST POSITION AND WIND FIELD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO THE GFS FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
211230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2N 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY 168 NM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 1755Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE FURTHER
EMPHASIZES THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE INDOCHINESE PENINSULA AS IT STEADILY
INTENSIFIES WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATING A HIGHER LEVEL OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
back to the top

Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 22 September 2021
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 25 September 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical systems in the region and none are expected
to develop in the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday        Very Low   
Friday          Very Low   
Saturday        Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 30 April 2021
for the period until midnight CST Monday 3 May 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   


This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region until 1
November 2021.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 30 April 2021
for the period until midnight EST Monday 3 May 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

None.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows in the Eastern Region and none are
expected to develop during the next three days.

This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the 2020/21 season. The
next issue will be on 1 November 2021.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

back to the top

Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 042200
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Aug 042250 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

back to the top

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221141
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 22 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula 
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development, and 
a short-lived tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday 
while the low moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  This 
system is forecast to move over cooler waters and into an 
environment of stable air and strong upper-level winds this weekend, 
which should inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221158 CCA
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Corrected location of Peter relative to Puerto Rico.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Peter, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico, 
and on Tropical Depression Rose, located about 1000 miles 
west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in 
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles 
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are 
expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form within a day or two while 
the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Additional information on this 
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of 
Odette, is located a little less than 500 miles west-northwest of 
the westernmost Azores. This low could acquire some subtropical 
characteristics over marginally warm waters during the next few days 
while it makes a counter-clockwise loop over the north-central 
Atlantic Ocean. However, by the weekend, this system is expected to 
move into an environment of strong upper-level winds.  Additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

back to the top

Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 221137
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Wed Sep 22 2021

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

$$

Forecaster Gibbs
back to the top

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


back to the top


Hurricane Forecast   |   Tropical Storm Risk   |   Hurricane Spaghetti Models   |   Cyclone and Hurricane Names

Cyclocane   |   National Hurricane Center   |   Joint Typhoon Warning Center   |   Japan Meteorological Agency

site by Hayley Croft

Want to help support this site?

Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane.

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.