Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
22.7S 34.6E, APPROXIMATELY 78 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAXIXE, 
MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INRAFRED IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED, 
BUT WELL-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) CURRENTLY SITUATED 
OVER LAND WITH MINIMAL, FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE LLC, AND A BALL 
OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 171401Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. 92S IS 
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG DUAL 
CHANNEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MARGINAL (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND LAND INTERACTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD CROSSING OVERSEA WHERE 
IT WILL BE IN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW THAT 92S WILL LIKELY TURN BACK INTO LAND AFTER 
ONLY A FEW DAYS, CREATING A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL 
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY, COOLER 
AIR TO BE BROUGHT EQUATORWARD INTO 92S, INHIBITING ITS POTENTIAL FOR 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.8N 144.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 229 
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATON CENTER. A 180033Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS NUMEROUS 15-20 KNOT 
WINDS WITH ISOLATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY. THE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KT) VWS AND STRONG DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 
FAVORABLE (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED 
WESTWARD TRACK AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER 
MINDANAO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 17 January 2019
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 20 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A tropical low (11U) was located near 15S 112.5E at 1pm WST Thursday, which is
about 740 km northwest of Dampier. The system is forecast to continue moving
westwards and will not move close to the West Australian coast. The system is
weak at the moment, in a generally unfavourable environment and there a Very
Low risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone. On Friday it is likely to
pass south of Christmas Island and then possibly move close to the Cocos
Islands on Sunday or Monday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday          Very Low   
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   


There are no other tropical lows in the Western region at present and none are
expected to develop in the next three days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday          Very Low   
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:17 pm CST on Friday 18 January 2019
for the period until midnight CST Monday 21 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak trough extends through the Arafura Sea with a weak tropical low embedded
within it to the north of the Top End. The trough is expected to strengthen
into a monsoon trough over the weekend. The tropical low is likely to drift
further west over the weekend and has the potential to develop a little further
early next week in the Timor Sea.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday        Very Low.  
Sunday          Very Low.  
Monday          Low.       



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 18 January 2019
for the period until midnight EST Monday 21 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday        Very low   
Sunday          Very low   
Monday          Very low   



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 172100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 172348 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051541
TWOEP 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 AM PST Sat Jan 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure system centered
about 1100 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become less organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions have become unfavorable and tropical or
subtropical cyclone development is not anticipated. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. This is the last Special
Tropical Weather Outlook that will be issued on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May
15, 2019.  During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and are
available on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302336
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC
ACPN50 PHFO 010540
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 central North Pacific hurricane season. Routine issuance
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific


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