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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 45 knots / 52 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 52 MPH at
Spaghetti models for NAKRI can be found here:
WTPN32 PGTW 102100 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 25W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 021A CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 021A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 109.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 109.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 13.2N 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 13.7N 106.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.3N 105.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 108.9E. 10NOV19. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FURTHERMORE, A 101801Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON EXPECTED WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION WHERE MODERATE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE IS CONSISTENTLY BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 25W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THROUGH TAU 12, TS 25W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS CONTINUED MODERATE VWS, LAND INTERACTION AND OFFSET UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PRECLUDE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES, THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN FORWARD STORM MOTION WHICH RESULT IN INCREASING ALONG-TRACK MODEL SPREAD AFTER TAU 12. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES AFTER LANDFALL, PRODUCING A BIFURCATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS VIETNAM WHILE A FEW MODELS (AFUM, ECMWF, AND GALWEM) PURSUE A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FOLLOWING THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SOLUTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED DISCUSSION IN REMARKS.// NNNN
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
45 knots | 12.9, 109.2 | dissipating | |
30 knots | 13.2, 107.9 | dissipating | |
25 knots | 13.7, 106.5 | dissipating | |
20 knots | 14.3, 105.2 | dissipated |
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