( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 70 knots / 80 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 70 knots / 80 MPH at
Spaghetti models for LORENZO can be found here:
000 WTNT33 KNHC 021435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 ...LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.4N 25.8W ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WSW OF CORK IRELAND ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM WSW OF GALWAY IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has discontinued all warnings for the Azores. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 25.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England on Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and England. Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- For hazard information for Lorenzo in Ireland and the United Kingdom see products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met Office. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and- sea/high-seas-forecast. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie/. Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. $$ Forecaster Brown
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
000 WTNT43 KNHC 021436 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 Lorenzo has completed its transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The center has become exposed on the southwestern edge of the cloud shield, and recent ASCAT data indicate that the system has acquired frontal features. The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is a little above the scatterometer data since there is typically a low bias in that instrument at these wind speeds. The global models suggest that the post-tropical cyclone will only gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Ireland. A faster rate of weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday when the cyclone moves southeastward over Ireland and the United Kingdom. The low should dissipate over southeastern England by late Friday. The cyclone continues to move rapidly northeastward or 040/37 kt, and this general motion should continue into Thursday. After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then southeastward within an area of weaker westerly flow. The global model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is in closest to the ECMWF model. Future hazard information on Lorenzo for Ireland and the United Kingdom can be found in products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met Office. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie/. Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies: The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and- sea/high-seas-forecast Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 44.4N 25.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
|70 knots||44.4, -25.8||translation missing: en.POST-TROPICAL|
|70 knots||48.6, -20.8||POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE|
|65 knots||52.8, -14.3||POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE|
|60 knots||54.0, -9.5||POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE|
|40 knots||52.5, -3.5||POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE|
|0 knots||translation missing: en.DISSIPATED|
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