Cyclocane

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

FIVE Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 110 knots / 127 MPH at

FIVE Land Hazards

Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega
MTS BELAL. | Weather Outlook issued at 10h30 hours on Friday 12 January 2024.
La Réunion

FIVE Tracker

FIVE Satellite Loop

visible satellite loop of TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE from wisc.edu

visible satellite loop of TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE from wisc.edu

FIVE Alternate Tracking Map

FIVE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for FIVE can be found here:

FIVE spaghetti models page »

FIVE Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE Public Advisory

JTWC Advisory

WTXS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 56.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 56.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 14.4S 55.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 15.9S 54.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 17.5S 54.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 18.5S 54.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 19.9S 55.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 21.7S 58.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 23.0S 60.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 56.4E.
12JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 997
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 120800).
NNNN

meteo france Advisory

ZCZC 576
WTIO30 FMEE 121833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/2/20232024
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
2.A POSITION 2024/01/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 56.4 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/13 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
24H: 2024/01/13 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
36H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
48H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
60H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
72H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
120H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02-20232024 HAS
GRADUALLY DETERIORATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, WITH CLOUD TOPS
BECOMING CONSIDERABLY WARMER. MODERATE EASTERLY STRESS IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE. DESPITE THIS, THERE
ARE OTHER OBJECTIVE SIGNS THAT THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE SEEMS TO BE
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST MICROWAVE GMI
PASSES FROM 1457Z AND AMSR-2 FROM 1013Z, WHICH SHOW A CLOSED
CONVECTIVE RING AT 37GHZ. THIS VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS TEMPORARY, AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN MEAN WIND, GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONTEXT, AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE (JTWC -
KNES) AND OBJECTIVE (ADT-AIDT) ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS WITH THE
DPRINT/DMINT AVERAGE.
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL FORCE IT TO HEAD SOUTH-WEST TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER, THE INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM WOULD LEAD IT TO BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHER-ALTITUDE
DIRECTIONAL FLOW, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE, WHICH WOULD FORCE
IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS, WHILE SLOWING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS AT THE END OF
SUNDAY TO MONDAY OR MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND TAKES THE METEOR AS CLOSE
AS POSSIBLE TO THE REUNION ISLAND ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS CHANGE OF
PHILOSOPHY IS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
(EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN), WHICH SHIFTS THE TRACK FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH, WHILE BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE DISPERSION OF THE ENSEMBLE
MODEL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THESE TIMES, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE PASSAGE DISTANCES NEAR THE MASCARENE ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND
BEYOND.
APART FROM THE MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OBSERVED AT 18 UTC (AND
DOUBTLESS UNTIL THE NEXT NETWORK), THE MINIMUM IS GENERALLY
BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF
MOIST AIR FROM A SATISFACTOY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WEAK DEEP SHEAR,
VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. WE CAN THEREFORE EXPECT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION THAT
WILL SEE IT REACH THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS IT TURNS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
APPROACHING THE GRANDES MASCAREIGNES (REUNION - MAURITIUS), THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM COULD THEN STAGNATE, NOT ONLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF
INTERNAL MECHANISMS, BUT ALSO OF A MORE INVASIVE SOUTH-WESTERLY
MID-TROPOSPHERE WIND SHEAR AS IT PASSES THE MASCAREIGNES, WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE GREATER MASCARENE ISLANDS AND SHOULD NOT ONLY REACH
COOLER, LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, BUT ALSO ENCOUNTER PERSISTENT DEEP
WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
IMPACTS EXPECTED ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- WAVES OF AROUND 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON
SUNDAY, RISING TO 6 METERS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY
REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING FOR REUNION, MONDAY FOR
MAURITIUS. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING.
TO BE CONFIRMED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
-HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 100MM IN 24HRS IN THE HIGHLANDS OF
REUNION FROM SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 100MM IN
24HRS POSSIBLE OVER THE WHOLE COUNTRY FROM SUNDAY EVENING IN REUNION,
MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS.=
NNNN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

FIVE storm path from cyclocane hybrid

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots -13.9, 56.4
50 knots -15.5, 55.1 translation missing: en.SEVERE
65 knots -17.2, 53.9 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
75 knots -18.6, 53.7 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
85 knots -19.8, 54.2 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
85 knots -20.7, 55.4 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
80 knots -21.3, 56.5 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
80 knots -21.8, 58.8 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
75 knots -22.3, 62.0 translation missing: en.TROPICAL

FIVE storm path from JTWC

Time Speed Location Status
35 knots -13.3, 56.6
50 knots -14.4, 55.7
65 knots -15.9, 54.7
80 knots -17.5, 54.0
95 knots -18.5, 54.1
110 knots -19.9, 55.7
105 knots -21.7, 58.1
90 knots -23.0, 60.9

FIVE storm path from meteo france

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots -13.9, 56.4
50 knots -15.5, 55.1 translation missing: en.SEVERE
65 knots -17.2, 53.9 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
75 knots -18.6, 53.7 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
85 knots -19.8, 54.2 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
85 knots -20.7, 55.4 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
80 knots -21.3, 56.5 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
80 knots -21.8, 58.8 translation missing: en.TROPICAL
75 knots -22.3, 62.0 translation missing: en.TROPICAL


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