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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 110 knots / 127 MPH at
Spaghetti models for FIVE can be found here:
WTXS31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZJAN2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 56.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 56.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.4S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.9S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 17.5S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.5S 54.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.9S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 21.7S 58.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 23.0S 60.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 56.4E. 12JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.// 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 120800). NNNN
ZCZC 576 WTIO30 FMEE 121833 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/2/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2024/01/12 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 56.4 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/13 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/01/13 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 60H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/01/15 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/01/16 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 120H: 2024/01/17 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02-20232024 HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, WITH CLOUD TOPS BECOMING CONSIDERABLY WARMER. MODERATE EASTERLY STRESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE. DESPITE THIS, THERE ARE OTHER OBJECTIVE SIGNS THAT THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, AS EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST MICROWAVE GMI PASSES FROM 1457Z AND AMSR-2 FROM 1013Z, WHICH SHOW A CLOSED CONVECTIVE RING AT 37GHZ. THIS VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS TEMPORARY, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IN THE SHORT TERM. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN MEAN WIND, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONTEXT, AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE (JTWC - KNES) AND OBJECTIVE (ADT-AIDT) ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS WITH THE DPRINT/DMINT AVERAGE. THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS STEERED BY A RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FORCE IT TO HEAD SOUTH-WEST TOWARDS THE NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER, THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM WOULD LEAD IT TO BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHER-ALTITUDE DIRECTIONAL FLOW, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE, WHICH WOULD FORCE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS, WHILE SLOWING DOWN CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS AT THE END OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY OR MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND TAKES THE METEOR AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE REUNION ISLAND ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS CHANGE OF PHILOSOPHY IS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN), WHICH SHIFTS THE TRACK FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH, WHILE BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE DISPERSION OF THE ENSEMBLE MODEL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THESE TIMES, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE PASSAGE DISTANCES NEAR THE MASCARENE ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND BEYOND. APART FROM THE MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OBSERVED AT 18 UTC (AND DOUBTLESS UNTIL THE NEXT NETWORK), THE MINIMUM IS GENERALLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR FROM A SATISFACTOY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WEAK DEEP SHEAR, VERY WARM WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WE CAN THEREFORE EXPECT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION THAT WILL SEE IT REACH THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS IT TURNS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, APPROACHING THE GRANDES MASCAREIGNES (REUNION - MAURITIUS), THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM COULD THEN STAGNATE, NOT ONLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF INTERNAL MECHANISMS, BUT ALSO OF A MORE INVASIVE SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE WIND SHEAR AS IT PASSES THE MASCAREIGNES, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY BRING DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE GREATER MASCARENE ISLANDS AND SHOULD NOT ONLY REACH COOLER, LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, BUT ALSO ENCOUNTER PERSISTENT DEEP WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IMPACTS EXPECTED ON REUNION AND MAURITIUS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - WAVES OF AROUND 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON SUNDAY, RISING TO 6 METERS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING FOR REUNION, MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING. TO BE CONFIRMED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. -HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 100MM IN 24HRS IN THE HIGHLANDS OF REUNION FROM SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 100MM IN 24HRS POSSIBLE OVER THE WHOLE COUNTRY FROM SUNDAY EVENING IN REUNION, MONDAY FOR MAURITIUS.= NNNN
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
30 knots | -13.9, 56.4 | ||
50 knots | -15.5, 55.1 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
65 knots | -17.2, 53.9 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
75 knots | -18.6, 53.7 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
85 knots | -19.8, 54.2 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
85 knots | -20.7, 55.4 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
80 knots | -21.3, 56.5 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
80 knots | -21.8, 58.8 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
75 knots | -22.3, 62.0 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL |
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
35 knots | -13.3, 56.6 | ||
50 knots | -14.4, 55.7 | ||
65 knots | -15.9, 54.7 | ||
80 knots | -17.5, 54.0 | ||
95 knots | -18.5, 54.1 | ||
110 knots | -19.9, 55.7 | ||
105 knots | -21.7, 58.1 | ||
90 knots | -23.0, 60.9 |
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
30 knots | -13.9, 56.4 | ||
50 knots | -15.5, 55.1 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
65 knots | -17.2, 53.9 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
75 knots | -18.6, 53.7 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
85 knots | -19.8, 54.2 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
85 knots | -20.7, 55.4 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
80 knots | -21.3, 56.5 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
80 knots | -21.8, 58.8 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
75 knots | -22.3, 62.0 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL |
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