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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
SEVENTEEN-E Current Status
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT...
Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH at
SEVENTEEN-E Land Hazards
- WIND - Tropical storm conditions are possible within the eastern part of the watch area later today and could spread westward across the remainder of the area through late Friday.
- RAINFALL - Outer bands from the tropical depression will bring heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Across coastal portions of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts of 6 inches or more in Guerrero and Michoacán. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from the tropical depression will bring the potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. early next week.
- SURF - Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread westward along the southwestern coast of Mexico through Friday and reach southern Baja California Sur on Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office.
SEVENTEEN-E Tracker
SEVENTEEN-E Satellite Loop
SEVENTEEN-E Alternate Tracking Map
SEVENTEEN-E Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for SEVENTEEN-E can be found here:
SEVENTEEN-E spaghetti models page »
SEVENTEEN-E Watches and Warnings
Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E Tropical Cyclone Update
Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E Public Advisory
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 091440 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 900 AM CST Thu Oct 09 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 100.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen-E was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 100.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Friday, followed by a northward turn by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Friday and then be near southern Baja California Sur Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday, but weakening is likely over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the eastern part of the watch area later today and could spread westward across the remainder of the area through late Friday. RAINFALL: Outer bands from the tropical depression will bring heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Across coastal portions of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts of 6 inches or more in Guerrero and Michoacán. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from the tropical depression will bring the potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. early next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with the depression, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread westward along the southwestern coast of Mexico through Friday and reach southern Baja California Sur on Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E Forecast Discussion
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 091440 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 900 AM CST Thu Oct 09 2025 The large area of disturbed weather located near the southwestern coast of Mexico (Invest 90E) has continued to gain organization. Convective banding has become more evident in the southern and western part of the circulation, and the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0 and T1.5, respectively. The convective pattern does suggest that the circulation might still be a bit elongated, but hourly observations from a cruise ship, the Norwegian Joy (C6CX3), helped to locate the main center of circulation, pressure minimum, and estimated winds. The circulation and convection are now organized enough to classify the system as a tropical depression. The center we're now tracking is somewhat discontinuous from a feature we were tracking yesterday farther to the east, and the initial motion is a rough estimate of west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt. Strong mid-level ridging over northern Mexico and the south-central U.S. is expected to steer the depression on a quick west-northwestward to northwestward track during the next 48 hours, with the center paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico through late Friday. The system is then likely to round the western periphery of the high and move toward the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement for this first forecast, and the NHC track is close to a blend of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. The depression is being affected by strong easterly shear which is likely to continue for the next 24 hours. However, the system is also over very warm waters (29-30 degrees Celsius), in an environment of strong upper-level divergence, and moving quickly, which should all allow for some modest strengthening during that time. The NHC forecast is near the top end of the guidance and close to the HCCA aid in the short term. Although the shear is forecast to decrease some after 24 hours, the mid-level environment is expected to become drier and more stable while the upper-level winds become more convergent. Those changes should induce weakening while the system is approaching the southern Baja California peninsula. Although a remnant low point is provided over northwestern Mexico on day 4, it is likely that the system will dissipate before that time. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through late Friday. Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of the system. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with the tropical depression will impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico through Saturday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.2N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 16.8N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 105.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.8N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 21.4N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 23.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 25.5N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 29.2N 110.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
SEVENTEEN-E storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 knots | 16.2, -100.8 | ||
| 40 knots | 16.8, -102.6 | ||
| 45 knots | 18.1, -105.1 | ||
| 40 knots | 19.8, -107.8 | ||
| 35 knots | 21.4, -109.9 | ||
| 30 knots | 23.3, -111.0 | ||
| 30 knots | 25.5, -111.2 | ||
| 15 knots | 29.2, -110.7 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 0 knots | DISSIPATED |
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