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ONE-C Current Status

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORMS FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH at

ONE-C Land Hazards

No land hazards or hazard data not available for this storm.

ONE-C Tracker

ONE-C Satellite Loop

ONE-C Alternate Tracking Map

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ONE-C Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for ONE-C can be found here:

ONE-C spaghetti models page »

ONE-C Watches and Warnings

The Watches and Warnings Map is only availble on NHC tracked storms.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C Public Advisory

000
WTPA31 PHFO 071434
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
500 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORMS FAR SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.0N 171.4W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.
 
$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C Forecast Discussion

000
WTPA41 PHFO 071459
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
500 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016
 
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY HAVE PERSISTED SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO CLASSIFY THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS LOW-LATITUDE OUT-OF-SEASON SYSTEM
HAS TAPPED INTO SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...WITH AN EL-NINO RELATED WESTERLY WIND BURST SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM...AND PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE NORTH PROVIDING
THE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5/25 KT FROM PHFO/SAB TO
2.0/30 KT FROM PGTW...AND THE INTENSITY FOR THIS INITIAL ADVISORY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT. 

THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...HAS BEEN
DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 350/04 KT. TRACK
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO FAIRLY DISTINCT CAMPS...WITH THE
DIFFERENCES MOST SIGNIFICANT AFTER 72 HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST. AFTER THIS TIME...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROUGH FIRST INDUCES A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THEN AN EAST
TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL/TVCN SOLUTIONS. THE
ECMWF/NAVGEM/CMC ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH...AND
MAINTAIN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE IS
STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE AND TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN FAVORS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL/TVCN...FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...
ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL DAYS 4 AND 5. DESPITE THE
SEASON...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO
SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED
TO BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT IN WHICH THE
CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z  4.0N 171.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z  4.8N 171.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z  5.7N 172.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z  6.6N 172.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z  7.0N 173.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z  7.5N 173.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z  7.5N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/1200Z  7.0N 171.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

ONE-C storm path from CPHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 4.0, -171.4
40 knots 4.8, -171.6
45 knots 5.7, -172.0
45 knots 6.6, -172.8
45 knots 7.0, -173.7
45 knots 7.5, -173.5
40 knots 7.5, -172.5
35 knots 7.0, -171.5


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