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OCTAVE Current Status

Current Wind Speed 55 knots / 65 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 65 knots / 75 MPH at 2025-10-05T12:00:00.000Z

OCTAVE Land Hazards

OCTAVE Tracker

OCTAVE Satellite Loop

OCTAVE Alternate Tracking Map

OCTAVE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for OCTAVE can be found here:

OCTAVE spaghetti models page »

OCTAVE Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Public Advisory

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 021437
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025
 
...OCTAVE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 118.5W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 118.5 West. Octave is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this 
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Storm OCTAVE Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 021438
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Octave continues to be affected by strong easterly vertical wind 
shear associated with an upper-level anticyclone to its northeast.  
The cloud pattern has not changed much in organization, with some 
limited convective banding features over the southern and western 
portions of the circulation.  Upper-tropospheric outflow continues 
to be impeded to the east of the cyclone.  The advisory intensity 
estimate is held at 55 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak 
estimate from TAFB.  Objective values from UW-CIMSS range from 49 
to 54 kt at this time.

The system is moving west-northwestward at around 285/7 kt.  Octave 
is currently being steered by the flow on the southern perimeter of 
a mid-level ridge.  This ridge is predicted to weaken over the next 
few days, which should cause the system to slow and turn northward 
in around 72 hours.  A generally eastward motion is expected by the 
end of the forecast period, as Octave becomes drawn into the larger 
circulation of a developing tropical cyclone off the southwest coast 
of Mexico.  The official track forecast is close to the latest 
corrected dynamical consensus model, HCCA, track.

Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear over 
Octave will abate in a few days while the system traverses 
marginally warm ocean waters.  Thus, there is a relatively small 
window of opportunity for strengthening later in the forecast 
period.  This is also shown in the official intensity forecast, 
which is at the high end of the model guidance suite.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 12.5N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 12.8N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 13.3N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 13.8N 121.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 14.4N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 15.0N 123.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 15.3N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 15.9N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

OCTAVE storm path from NHC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2025-10-02T15:00:00.000Z	55 knots	12.5, -118.5
2025-10-03T00:00:00.000Z	55 knots	12.8, -119.3
2025-10-03T12:00:00.000Z	55 knots	13.3, -120.5
2025-10-04T00:00:00.000Z	55 knots	13.8, -121.8
2025-10-04T12:00:00.000Z	55 knots	14.4, -123.0
2025-10-05T00:00:00.000Z	60 knots	15.0, -123.8
2025-10-05T12:00:00.000Z	65 knots	15.3, -124.0
2025-10-06T12:00:00.000Z	65 knots	15.9, -122.9
2025-10-07T12:00:00.000Z	50 knots	16.0, -120.5

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