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RAYMOND Current Status

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...

Current Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 50 knots / 60 MPH at

RAYMOND Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
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El Salvador
Informes Especiales

RAYMOND Tracker

RAYMOND Satellite Loop

RAYMOND Alternate Tracking Map

RAYMOND Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for RAYMOND can be found here:

RAYMOND spaghetti models page »

RAYMOND Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm RAYMOND Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Storm RAYMOND Public Advisory

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 151443
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 108.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 108.8 West. Raymond is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
through today. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is
forecast by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated
during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to occur by
Sunday, and the system is predicted to degenerate into a remnant
low by late Sunday or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern portions of
Baja California Sur. This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Storm RAYMOND Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151445
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

The cyclone located several hundred miles south of the Baja
California peninsula has continued to get better organized over the
past few hours. The system is still sheared from the west, however,
recent microwave and first-light visible imagery indicate that the
center of the cyclone is better embedded within its convective
canopy. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data early this morning had unflagged
35 kt peak winds and the overall structure of the cyclone appears
to have improved since then. The initial intensity is therefore
increased to 40 kt, and the system is now Tropical Storm Raymond.

The largest source of uncertainty in Raymond's forecast is how its
structure will evolve during the next 12 hours. ASCAT-C data showed
that Raymond's circulation was still rather elongated overnight,
however more recent microwave data indicate that the center may be
reforming closer to the deep convection. If a new center is in fact
consolidating to the east, Raymond should have an opportunity to
strengthen today, but if the cyclone remains elongated, little
intensification is likely. All of the typically-reliable dynamical
intensity guidance shows at least slight strengthening, and the NHC
forecast has been increased accordingly. Stronger upper-level winds
are likely after that, so weakening is still expected before Raymond
nears the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday, and
it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time.

Raymond is moving north-northwestward and this general motion is
forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north or
north-northeast is likely on Saturday as Raymond moves between a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.
There has been little change in the track guidance since the last
forecast and the new NHC forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory. It is worth noting that if Raymond's center
reforms to the east, as shown by the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models, an
adjustment in that direction will likely be required to the track
forecast, while a broader system will more likely move farther west.

Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into
southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next
few days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 14.1N 108.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

RAYMOND storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
40 knots 14.1, -108.8
50 knots 15.1, -109.3
50 knots 16.4, -110.2
45 knots 18.1, -110.5
40 knots 20.2, -110.0
30 knots 24.3, -110.2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
0 knots translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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