Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

English Español Deutsch Français 日本語

NINE-E Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH at 2024-09-14T00:00:00.000Z

NINE-E Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area.
• WIND - Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday.
• SURF - Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NINE-E Tracker

NINE-E Satellite Loop

NINE-E Alternate Tracking Map

NINE-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for NINE-E can be found here:

NINE-E spaghetti models page »

NINE-E Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression NINE-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression NINE-E Public Advisory

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 121745
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
1100 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024
 
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 
AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY...

 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 107.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from La Paz southward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of La Paz to San Evaristo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Depression Nine-E.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 107.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A 
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected through 
early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north and a slight 
decrease in forward speed by Friday night. On the forecast track, 
the center of the cyclone should pass near or over Baja California 
Sur Friday or Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of 
California late Friday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours, and the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical
storm later today.  After that, slight additional strengthening is
possible before the system reaches the southern Baja California
peninsula.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6
inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across
the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early
Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to
produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.  This heavy rainfall will
bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the
area.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect
portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or
so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja
California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 121459
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024
 
Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the growing area of
deep convection associated with the low pressure system off the
coast of west-central Mexico has been quite persistent with
increased banding noted over the past 6 to 12 h.  The subjective
intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and on this basis, the
system is upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression.
 
The initial motion is an uncertain northwest, or 325/6 kt.  There is
a fair amount of uncertainty in the initial position of the center,
but it appears to be near the eastern edge of the convection, based
on recent microwave imagery.  A deep-layer trough located over the
western United States will steer the cyclone toward the
north-northwest over the next 24 to 36 h, bringing the system near
the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, the
deep-layer trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause
steering currents to weaken.  This pattern will likely induce a
slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of
the southern Gulf of California.  The cyclone could approach the
coast of northern Sinaloa or Sonora Saturday night into Sunday.
The track forecast guidance is in good agreement for the first
48 h, but then starts to diverge a bit while the system is over the
southern Gulf of California. The NHC track forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope.  Due to some uncertainty in the
track beyond that time, coastal residents of the Mexican states of
Sinaloa and Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
 
Tropical Depression Nine-E is currently located within an
environment of warm ocean waters, low to moderate vertical wind
shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere.
However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the
northwest of the cyclone.  These conditions are unlikely to change
before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur, and the NHC
forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today.
Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some temporary
weakening.  However, water temperatures in the Gulf of California
are quite warm, so some restrengthening is possible after the
cyclone emerges back over water.  The NHC intensity forecast is
near the higher end of the intensity guidance.  Beyond 60 h,
westerly wind shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves
into a drier environment.  Even if the system is still over water
at that time, the cyclone is likely to begin weakening.  The GFS
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products show the cyclone
losing its convection around 72 h.  The NHC forecast shows
weakening at that time, with the system becoming a remnant low
beyond 72 h.
 
Key Messages:
1. Tropical Depression Nine-E will bring heavy rainfall to portions 
of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. 
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and 
mudslides to portions of the area. 

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of 
the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings 
have been issued. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 19.2N 107.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

NINE-E storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.