Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

SEVEN Current Status

Current Wind Speed 40 knots / 46 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 70 knots / 81 MPH at

SEVEN Land Hazards

India

No land hazards or hazard data not available for this storm.

SEVEN Tracker

SEVEN Satellite Loop

SEVEN Alternate Tracking Map

SEVEN Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for SEVEN can be found here:

SEVEN spaghetti models page »

SEVEN Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN Public Advisory

WTIO31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 89.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 89.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 13.8N 88.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 14.1N 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 14.3N 86.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 14.3N 86.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 13.8N 84.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 13.1N 81.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 12.8N 78.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 89.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH
OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 07B. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A NOTCH
FEATURE SEEN IN AN 110000Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 102345Z ADT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KNOTS) AND HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 07B IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). TC 07B HAS A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 07B IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 07B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. TC 07B WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 36 WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. BEYOND
TAU 36, THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE WILL TRANSITION TO THE STR
LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. THIS STR WILL CAUSE TC 07B
TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WHILE
INTENSIFYING. TC 07B WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 07B WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND MAKE
LAND FALL JUST SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA NEAR TAU 108. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL TRACK DIRECTION
BUT THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH NVGM THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THE NORTH AND GFS INDICATING A TRACK FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH. GFS AND NVGM HAVE A SPREAD OF 238 NM BY TAU 72 AND
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE BEYOND THAT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND
120300Z.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

SEVEN storm path from JTWC

Time Speed Location Status
40 knots 13.3, 89.2
45 knots 13.8, 88.5
50 knots 14.1, 87.8
55 knots 14.3, 86.9
60 knots 14.3, 86.0
70 knots 13.8, 84.1
60 knots 13.1, 81.5 dissipating
25 knots 12.8, 78.4 dissipated


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