Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

SEVEN Current Status

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH at

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

current radar loop

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

SEVEN Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC AL052019 **HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY**
Miami FL AL052019 **HURRICANE DORIAN BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWEST OF GRAND BAHAMA**
Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL052019 **DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE**
Jacksonville FL AL052019 **WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM DORIAN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA**
Charleston SC AL052019 **HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY**
Newport/Morehead City NC AL052019 **DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE**
Raleigh NC AL052019 **HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING**
Melbourne FL AL052019 **Dorian Bringing Large Battering Waves and Tropical Storm Gusts to the Space and Treasure Coast**
Columbia SC AL052019 **Tropical Storm Watch For Eastern Midlands **

SEVEN Tracker

SEVEN Satellite Loop

SEVEN Alternate Tracking Map

SEVEN Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for SEVEN can be found here:

SEVEN spaghetti models page »

SEVEN Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression SEVEN Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression SEVEN Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031444
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the
lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for
portions of these areas.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 94.9 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today.  A motion toward the west-
northwest is forecast tonight and Wednesday.  This motion could
bring the system near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Squalls with gusts to
tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along
portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas
coast.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 031444
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the
low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better
defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to
be designated a tropical depression.  The initial intensity of 30 kt
is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 260/6.  A deep-layer ridge over the southern
United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward
to west-northwestward through its lifetime.  The new forecast track
is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the
center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h.
The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous
track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to
south Texas.

Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the
cyclone moves into Mexico.  However, the broad and large nature of
the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before
landfall.  The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before
reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico
by 72 h.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 23.6N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 23.4N  95.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 23.6N  96.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 24.1N  97.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 24.8N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

SEVEN storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 23.6, -94.9
30 knots 23.4, -95.6
35 knots 23.6, -96.7
40 knots 24.1, -97.6
30 knots 24.8, -98.5 translation missing: en.INLAND
0 knots translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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