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Other future tropical cyclones:
Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is high.
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 220600Z, TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 220600Z, TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN35 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 119.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 119.0E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WEAK, FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 220158Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 220158Z MHS METOP-A IMAGE REVEALS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, ALSO DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTIAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KTS), GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-30C. DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS DEPENDENT UPON ITS INTERACTION WITH THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF TAIWAN. THE LONGER THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE GREATER ITS CHANCES ARE OF CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM REACHES TAIWAN BEFORE FURTHER CONSOLIDATION, THE LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM REEMERGES NORTH OF TAIWAN. REGARDLESS, 30+ KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LUZON STRAIT DUE TO TERRAIN FUNNELING AS THE CIRCULATION PASSES OVER TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
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