Cyclocane

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JAVIER Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH at 2022-09-04T09:00:00.000Z

JAVIER Land Hazards

• SURF - Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
• RAINFALL - Javier may produce up to an additional inch of rainfall across portions of the Baja California Peninsula today, bringing isolated storm total rainfall up to 5 inches.

JAVIER Tracker

JAVIER Satellite Loop

JAVIER Alternate Tracking Map

JAVIER Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for JAVIER can be found here:

JAVIER spaghetti models page »

JAVIER Watches and Warnings

Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Tropical Cyclone Update

Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Public Advisory

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 040837
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 04 2022
 
...JAVIER DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 118.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier
was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 118.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 15
mph (24 km/h). A slow turn toward the west is expected today. 
The remnant low is then forecast to continue westward through early 
next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Further weakening is expected during 
the next several days and the remnant low will likely dissipate 
toward the end of the week.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions
of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
RAINFALL:  Javier may produce up to an additional inch of rainfall 
across portions of the Baja California Peninsula today, bringing 
isolated storm total rainfall up to 5 inches.
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Javier.  For additional information on the remnant low 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 040837
TCDEP1
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 04 2022
 
There has been no significant deep convection associated with
Javier for nearly 16 hours, and it's doubtful that any
organized deep convection will attempt a comeback.  Accordingly,
Javier has become a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the
final NHC advisory on this system.  The initial intensity is
lowered to 30 kt, which is in agreement with subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The remnant low should 
continue to gradually spin down over cooler sea surface 
temperatures during the next several days, and the deterministic
models indicate that the surface circulation will become a trough
of low pressure toward the end of the week. The NHC intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the 
intensity model consensus.
 
The low continues to move away from the Baja California peninsula 
and the initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt.  The cyclone should 
turn westward soon in the low-level trade flow as a shallow remnant 
low and maintain this general heading until it dissipates in 5 days.
 
This is the final NHC advisory on Javier.  For additional 
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 27.2N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  04/1800Z 27.8N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 27.6N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 27.1N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1800Z 26.8N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 26.6N 131.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 26.5N 133.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

JAVIER storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

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