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JAVIER Current Status

...JAVIER BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

Current Wind Speed 25 knots / 30 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 25 knots / 30 MPH at

JAVIER Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
Belize
El Salvador
Informes Especiales

JAVIER Tracker

JAVIER Satellite Loop

JAVIER Alternate Tracking Map

JAVIER Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for JAVIER can be found here:

JAVIER spaghetti models page »

JAVIER Watches and Warnings

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER Tropical Cyclone Update

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER Public Advisory

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 092030
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

...JAVIER BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 112.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier
was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 112.0 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the low will continue to move
near or over the southern Baja California peninsula for the next day
or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued gradual weakening is forecast for the next
day or so, and the low is expected to dissipate on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnant low of Javier is expected to produce storm
total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and
northwest Mexico through Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of
up to 8 inches possible.  Moisture partially related to Javier has
spread into Arizona and New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain,
with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches, are possible through
Thursday.  The expected rainfall could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 092031
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

Satellite images show that the system lacks sufficient organized
deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone.  Therefore
the cyclone is now being designated as a post-tropical remnant low,
and this will be the last advisory on Javier.  Surface observations
and ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are
near 25 kt.  The low should continue to gradually spin down, and it
is likely to dissipate by Thursday.

The center has become less well defined, but the best estimate of
initial motion is around 310/9 kt.  The low is likely to continue
moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure
system until dissipation.  The official track forecast is close to
the model consensus.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 24.6N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  10/0600Z 25.3N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/1800Z 26.2N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/0600Z 27.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

JAVIER storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
25 knots 24.6, -112.0 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
25 knots 25.3, -112.8 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
25 knots 26.2, -113.6 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
20 knots 27.0, -114.0 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/INLAND
0 knots , translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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