Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.

Go to the main page to see active storms.

Hurricane Time Machine

EARL Current Status

...EARL BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...

Current Wind Speed 75 knots / 85 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 75 knots / 85 MPH at

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

map of current weather alerts in the United States

current radar loop

NWS weather radar loop of the coastal areas

If you're looking for other US radar loops, check out Radar Monster.

future radar imagery

future radar image of the Atlantic Ocean basin showing future possible storms and future locations of current storms

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

EARL Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements

EARL Tracker

EARL Satellite Loop

visible satellite loop of Post-Tropical Cyclone EARL from wisc.edu

EARL Alternate Tracking Map

EARL Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for EARL can be found here:

EARL spaghetti models page »

EARL Watches and Warnings

National Hurricane Center image showing current coastal watches and warnings and future EARL predicted path

Post-Tropical Cyclone EARL Tropical Cyclone Update

Post-Tropical Cyclone EARL Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 102040
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 10 2022
 
...EARL BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.6N 52.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl
was located near latitude 43.6 North, longitude 52.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 10
mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast at a slow forward speed 
is expected tonight. Earl is expected to be southeast of 
Newfoundland Sunday through Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Earl's winds are likely 
to fall below hurricane force tonight or early Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485
miles (780 km). A Canadian automated station near Cape Race 
recently reported a wind gust of 68 mph (109 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
 
WIND:  Strong winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in
Canada during the next several days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Post-Tropical Cyclone EARL Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 102040
TCDAT1
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Earl has completed extratropical 
transition, with well-developed frontal features and a central core 
that is void of deep convection.  While recent scatterometer 
overpasses did not sample the strongest winds, it showed that Earl 
remains both large and powerful as an extratropical low.  So, the 
initial intensity is set at 75 kt at this time.  The global models 
are in good agreement that the system should gradually weaken 
during the forecast period, with the maximum winds dropping below 
hurricane force between 12-24 h.  The intensity forecast follows 
the trend of the intensity guidance and has some minor adjustments 
from the previous forecast.

Earl has slowed its forward speed considerably since the last 
advisory, with the motion now 025/9 kt.  A slow movement toward the 
northeast is expected during the next 36 h as the system merges 
with a mid-latitude trough.  After that, the post-tropical cyclone 
is expected to move eastward through 96 h, followed by an 
east-northeastward motion.  The track guidance has shifted 
southward between 36-72 h, and the new forecast track is adjusted 
southward during that time as well.  The forecast slow motion, 
along with Earl's large wind field, will cause strong winds over 
the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland from this afternoon through 
Sunday. For additional information on impacts in Newfoundland, 
please monitor forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada.

The is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on 
Earl.  Additional information on this system can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday.
 
2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the
next several days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 43.6N  52.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  11/0600Z 44.3N  52.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  11/1800Z 44.8N  51.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  12/0600Z 45.0N  50.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  12/1800Z 44.9N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  13/0600Z 44.7N  47.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1800Z 44.7N  44.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1800Z 45.5N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1800Z 47.5N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

EARL storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
75 knots 43.6, -52.6 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
65 knots 44.3, -52.0 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
55 knots 44.8, -51.4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
45 knots 45.0, -50.8 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
40 knots 44.9, -49.8 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
40 knots 44.7, -47.3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
40 knots 44.7, -44.4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
35 knots 45.5, -40.0 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
35 knots 47.5, -36.5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE


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