( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 75 knots / 85 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 75 knots / 85 MPH at
Spaghetti models for EARL can be found here:
000 WTNT31 KNHC 102040 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 PM AST Sat Sep 10 2022 ...EARL BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.6N 52.6W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl was located near latitude 43.6 North, longitude 52.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast at a slow forward speed is expected tonight. Earl is expected to be southeast of Newfoundland Sunday through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Earl's winds are likely to fall below hurricane force tonight or early Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485 miles (780 km). A Canadian automated station near Cape Race recently reported a wind gust of 68 mph (109 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Earl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Strong winds are expected across the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in Canada during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Beven
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
000 WTNT41 KNHC 102040 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 PM AST Sat Sep 10 2022 Satellite imagery shows that Earl has completed extratropical transition, with well-developed frontal features and a central core that is void of deep convection. While recent scatterometer overpasses did not sample the strongest winds, it showed that Earl remains both large and powerful as an extratropical low. So, the initial intensity is set at 75 kt at this time. The global models are in good agreement that the system should gradually weaken during the forecast period, with the maximum winds dropping below hurricane force between 12-24 h. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Earl has slowed its forward speed considerably since the last advisory, with the motion now 025/9 kt. A slow movement toward the northeast is expected during the next 36 h as the system merges with a mid-latitude trough. After that, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to move eastward through 96 h, followed by an east-northeastward motion. The track guidance has shifted southward between 36-72 h, and the new forecast track is adjusted southward during that time as well. The forecast slow motion, along with Earl's large wind field, will cause strong winds over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland from this afternoon through Sunday. For additional information on impacts in Newfoundland, please monitor forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada. The is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Earl. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday. 2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 43.6N 52.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 11/0600Z 44.3N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1800Z 44.8N 51.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0600Z 45.0N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1800Z 44.9N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0600Z 44.7N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1800Z 44.7N 44.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1800Z 45.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1800Z 47.5N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
75 knots | 43.6, -52.6 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
65 knots | 44.3, -52.0 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
55 knots | 44.8, -51.4 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
45 knots | 45.0, -50.8 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
40 knots | 44.9, -49.8 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
40 knots | 44.7, -47.3 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
40 knots | 44.7, -44.4 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
35 knots | 45.5, -40.0 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
35 knots | 47.5, -36.5 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE |
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