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TWO-C Current Status

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 50 knots / 60 MPH at

TWO-C Land Hazards

No land hazards or hazard data not available for this storm.

TWO-C Tracker

TWO-C Satellite Loop

TWO-C Alternate Tracking Map

Alternate tracking maps are only available on NHC tracked storms.

TWO-C Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for TWO-C can be found here:

TWO-C spaghetti models page »

TWO-C Watches and Warnings

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C Public Advisory

000
WTPA33 PHFO 110858
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022015
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FAR
SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 156.0W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-C OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST LATE SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE
SATURDAY.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.
 
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C Forecast Discussion

000
WTPA43 PHFO 110856
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022015
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015
 
IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER...LLCC...OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C IN INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY THIS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS FROM 
0522Z SHOWED THE EXPOSED LLCC SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THIS DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN THE LLCC AND 
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT 
ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 08 KT FROM 115 
DEGREES BASED ON THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. AS A RESULT OF THIS 
SHEAR...MOST OF THE FIX AGENCIES APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING THE AREA OF 
DEEP CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE 
FROM HFO WAS 2.5...SAB WAS 2.0...AND JTWC WAS 1.5. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT...SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE NO MAJOR 
CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR OF TWO-C IS 315/08 KT. TWO-C REMAINS IN A 
COMPLEX AND WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS 
DISCUSSION...THE NEAR SURFACE STEERING OF TWO-C APPEARS TO BE 
INFLUENCED BY A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE REMNANT 
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ELA...WHICH IS CAUSING A 
WEAKNESS IN A STRONG SURFACE HIGH LOCATED FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. 
TWO-C IS ALSO NEAR A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF 
KAUAI. THE PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A 
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A 
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS DEEP RIDGING EVENTUALLY BUILDS TO THE NORTH 
OF TWO-C. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
CLOSELY WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. THIS FORECAST TRACK AGAIN 
IS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMIC AND CONSENSUS MODEL 
ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE 
THEREAFTER...WHEN THE SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES.
 
SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF TWO-C IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF TWO-C...WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN 
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS 
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS 
CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHIPS REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE 
AGGRESSIVE WITH INTENSIFICATION OF TWO-C COMPARED WITH THE 
CONSENSUS. THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF TWO-C IS LIKELY LEADING TO A 
LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...DUE TO SENSITIVITY OF THE 
SMALL SYSTEM TO EVEN THE MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS 
CURRENTLY IN THE AREA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 13.5N 156.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 14.2N 157.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 14.6N 158.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 14.6N 160.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 14.6N 162.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 14.5N 166.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 14.5N 170.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 14.5N 175.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

TWO-C storm path from CPHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 13.5, -156.0
30 knots 14.2, -157.0
35 knots 14.6, -158.5
35 knots 14.6, -160.2
40 knots 14.6, -162.0
40 knots 14.5, -166.0
45 knots 14.5, -170.5
50 knots 14.5, -175.0


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