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Other future tropical cyclones:
Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is high.
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 13AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (NANGKA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM EAST OF CHICHI JIMA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 13AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (PEILOU) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 786 NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI
TORI SHIMA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22N
138E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION. A 130102Z ASCAT-C
PASS REVEALS 20-25 KNOTS WINDS AROUND THE BULK OF THE CIRCULATION,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE MONSOONAL
SOUTHWESTERLIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A CIRCULATION THAT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE RAPID ATTAINMENT, BUT SHORT-LIVED
DURATION, OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AND A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 130600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. site by Hayley Croft
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