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MARIE Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH at 2020-10-07T03:00:00.000Z

MARIE Land Hazards

MARIE Tracker

MARIE Satellite Loop

MARIE Alternate Tracking Map

MARIE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for MARIE can be found here:

MARIE spaghetti models page »

MARIE Watches and Warnings

Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE Tropical Cyclone Update

Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE Public Advisory

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 070245
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020
 
...MARIE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 136.2W
ABOUT 1675 MI...2695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie
was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 136.2 West.  Marie 
is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph, and this general 
motion should continue through Wednesday afternoon.  A turn toward 
the west with a decrease in forward speed should begin late 
Wednesday and continue through Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Additional gradual weakening is expected during the 
next several days, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate on 
Saturday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on the remnant 
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Post-Tropical Cyclone MARIE Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 070245
TCDEP3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020
 
Patchy shower activity continues nearly 250 n mi to the northeast
of Marie's center--way too far away and way too weak for the system
to still be classified as a tropical cyclone.  Marie has therefore
become a remnant low, with maximum winds set at 30 kt since an
ASCAT-C pass around 1800 UTC did not register any winds of tropical 
storm force.  The remnant circulation is expected to gradually spin 
down during the next few days due to cold waters, dry air, and 
southwesterly shear of about 40 kt.  The global models generally 
show the remnant low hanging around for the next 3 days and then 
opening up into a trough by day 4, and that is reflected in this 
last NHC advisory.
 
Marie continues moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/7 kt.
A fairly weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north should keep
Marie on a west-northwestward heading for the next 24 hours,
followed by a westward motion with a gradual decrease in speed from
36 to 72 hours.  Most of the track models seem to pull the remnant
low too far to the north during the next day or so, and the NHC
track forecast is therefore near the southern side of the guidance
envelope, between HCCA and the previous interpolated official
forecast.

This is the last advisory on Marie.  For additional information on 
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header 
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 22.5N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  07/1200Z 22.9N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/0000Z 23.2N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1200Z 23.3N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0000Z 23.3N 139.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  09/1200Z 23.3N 140.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

MARIE storm path from NHC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2020-10-07T03:00:00.000Z	30 knots	22.5, -136.2	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2020-10-07T12:00:00.000Z	30 knots	22.9, -137.0	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2020-10-08T00:00:00.000Z	30 knots	23.2, -137.8	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2020-10-08T12:00:00.000Z	25 knots	23.3, -138.6	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2020-10-09T00:00:00.000Z	25 knots	23.3, -139.4	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2020-10-09T12:00:00.000Z	20 knots	23.3, -140.1	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2020-10-10T00:00:00.000Z	20 knots	23.3, -140.7	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2020-10-11T00:00:00.000Z	0 knots		translation missing: en.DISSIPATED

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