Cyclocane

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

THREE Current Status

...SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 55 knots / 65 MPH at

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

current radar loop

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

THREE Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements

THREE Tracker

THREE Satellite Loop

THREE Alternate Tracking Map

THREE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for THREE can be found here:

THREE spaghetti models page »

THREE Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression THREE Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression THREE Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021500
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
 
...SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The
depression is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward 
this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of 
Campeche through late Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the 
depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz,
and Campeche.  The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other
Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10
to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along
the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of
these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend,
and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible.  Rainfall in all
of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression THREE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 021504
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently 
investigating the depression and has found that the system is very 
close to tropical storm strength.  Based on flight-level and 
SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at 
30 kt for now.  Since the cyclone is over very warm waters with 
fairly low vertical shear, intensification to a tropical storm 
should occur today.  The official intensity forecast is close to the 
model consensus.  The intensity forecast later in the period is 
dependent on how much shear the system will encounter over the 
northern Gulf of Mexico and this is somewhat uncertain.  For now, 
the intensity forecast will remain conservative.
 
The initial motion estimate is slowly westward, or 270/3 kt.  The 
cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents over the 
Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days, with the system moving 
slowly within a broader gyre over eastern Mexico.  Global models 
show the cyclone being trapped between two mid-level anticyclones 
until later in the week, when some increase in southerly flow should 
begin to carry the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico 
coastline.  The official track forecast closely follows the 
dynamical model consensus.
 
At this time, both the track and intensity forecasts are of low 
confidence.  However, for the next couple of days, the main threat 
from this slow-moving cyclone is from widespread heavy rains over 
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:
 
1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and 
El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring
additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, 
Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather 
office for more information.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico 
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
 
3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf 
of Mexico by this weekend.  However, it is too soon to specify the 
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf 
Coast.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this 
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in 
place as we begin the season.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 19.5N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 19.5N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.0N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 18.8N  92.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 18.8N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 18.9N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 19.8N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 26.0N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

THREE storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 19.5, -92.6
35 knots 19.5, -92.7
40 knots 19.0, -92.4
40 knots 18.8, -92.2
45 knots 18.8, -92.0
40 knots 18.9, -91.8
45 knots 19.8, -91.2
50 knots 22.0, -91.0
55 knots 26.0, -91.0


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