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THREE Current Status

Current Wind Speed 50 knots / 58 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 60 knots / 69 MPH at 2020-11-22T12:00:00.000Z

THREE Land Hazards

No land hazards or hazard data not available for this storm.

THREE Tracker

THREE Satellite Loop

THREE Alternate Tracking Map

THREE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for THREE can be found here:

THREE spaghetti models page »

THREE Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE Public Advisory

WTIO31 PGTW 220300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 10.5N 53.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 53.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 10.3N 51.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 10.5N 49.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 10.6N 48.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 10.7N 45.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 53.3E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ORGANIZED 
AND STRENGTHENED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH EIR NOW SHOWING 
INDICATIONS OF AN EYE DEVELOPING. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN 
UPDATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A VERY WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE 
EYE FEATURE IN A 220027Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON A SLIGHT HEDGE 
UPWARD FROM AN 220300Z PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BASED PRIMARILY ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN 
THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED MICROWAVE IMAGE, SUPPORTED BY AN ADT 
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. THE 
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH LOW (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) 
VWS, WARM (27 DEG C) SSTS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE 
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC 03A IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT 
THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE 
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED STR OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM 
WEAKENS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR RAS HAFUN AROUND TAU 18, THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MEANDER SOMEWHAT, CLOSELY TRACKING THE 
TERRAIN FEATURES AND THE LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. IN THE NEAR-
TERM, TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, WITH THE PEAK 
INTENSITY NOW FORECAST TO REACH 60 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER MAKING 
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER 
THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA. WHILE REMNANTS OF THE 
CIRCULATION MAY TRACK INTO THE GULF OF ADEN, TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND AT OR BEFORE TAU 48. 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A POOR AGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS 
ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATION OVER WATER 
BY TAU 48, WHILE THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY 
NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 24. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
MODEL TRACKERS AND THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS 
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 24 DUE TO THE VERY SHARP DISAGREEMENT 
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z 
AND 230300Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMMENDMENT: SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INITIAL AND 
FORECAST INTENSITY.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

THREE storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2020-11-22T00:00:00.000Z	50 knots	10.5, 53.8
2020-11-22T12:00:00.000Z	60 knots	10.3, 51.7
2020-11-23T00:00:00.000Z	45 knots	10.5, 49.5	dissipating
2020-11-23T12:00:00.000Z	35 knots	10.6, 48.0	dissipating
2020-11-24T00:00:00.000Z	25 knots	10.7, 45.9	dissipated

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