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* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with
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Other future tropical cyclones:
Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is high.
No active storms
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 131.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 356 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 021252Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED BELOW THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION ADJACENT TO A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH A NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN. THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT A NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD KYUSHU OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 021500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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