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LORENA Current Status

...CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

Current Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH at

LORENA Land Hazards

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LORENA Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm LORENA Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Storm LORENA Public Advisory

170 
WTPZ35 KNHC 220236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 111.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 111.2 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross the
coast of mainland Mexico during the next several hours, followed by
a motion across northwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely before landfall.  After
landfall, Lorena is expected to weaken, and the system is forecast
to dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical-storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico during the
next several hours.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall: Lorena is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional
rainfall of less than one inch over Baja California Sur through
Sunday. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods
in Sonora.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Storm LORENA Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 220236
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave overpasses helped locate the
center of Lorena, which was hidden under a band of cirrus clouds,
over the Gulf of California southwest of Guymas.  The system was
devoid of convection for several hours.  However, a new burst of
convection has recently formed just northeast of the center.  There
is little data near the central core, so the initial intensity is
set at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory.
Lorena should make landfall over northwestern Mexico during the
next several hours, then rapidly weaken over the mountainous
terrain and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning.

The microwave data indicate that Lorena is continuing to move just
west of due north or 355/10 kt.  A general northward or perhaps
north-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone
dissipates, and the new forecast track is changed little from the
previous advisory track.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora Saturday
night and Sunday. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in
locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday.

2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over
portions of the tropical storm warning area during the next several
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 27.6N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

LORENA storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
40 knots 27.6, -111.2
30 knots 29.0, -111.7 translation missing: en.INLAND
20 knots 30.9, -112.1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
0 knots translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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