Cyclocane

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

SEVENTEEN Current Status

Current Wind Speed 45 knots / 52 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 52 MPH at

SEVENTEEN Land Hazards

Vanuatu
Marine Wind Warning
Severe Weather Warning
Tropical Low Information
TL Forecast Track Map
American Samoa / Samoa américaines
High Surf Warning
Flash Flood Watch
Tropical Storm Watch
Hurricane Local Statement
Marine Weather Statement
Fiji / Fidji
Solomon Islands / îles Salomon
New Caledonia / Nouvelle-Calédonie
Pas de bulletin de suivi de vigilance

SEVENTEEN Tracker

SEVENTEEN Satellite Loop

SEVENTEEN Alternate Tracking Map

SEVENTEEN Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for SEVENTEEN can be found here:

SEVENTEEN spaghetti models page »

SEVENTEEN Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN Public Advisory

WTPS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 170.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 170.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 16.3S 170.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 17.5S 169.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 18.6S 170.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 19.3S 171.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 170.6W.
21FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
31 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTIPSECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DESPITE THE IMPROVEMENT OBSERVED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY, A 210049Z AMSR2 IMAGE REVEALS POOR OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS), WHICH IS ABOVE AUTOMATED GUIDANCE.  NO RECENT SCATTEROMETRY IS AVAILABLE TO CONFIRM THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII ESTIMATES.  TC 17P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, AND IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AT TAU 12, BECOMING SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 24 TO 48, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE, WITH INCREASING VWS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 17P WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SUB-TROPICAL CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH (96P), AND POTENTIALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THIS AREA AS THE COMBINED ENERGY TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD.  HOWEVER, LIMITED NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIAL SYSTEM INTERACTION AND HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
//
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Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

SEVENTEEN storm path from JTWC

Time Speed Location Status
45 knots -14.8, -170.8
45 knots -16.3, -170.2
40 knots -17.5, -169.9
35 knots -18.6, -170.1 dissipating
30 knots -19.3, -171.2 dissipated


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