Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
SIXTEEN Current Status
Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 70 knots / MPH at
SIXTEEN Land Hazards
SIXTEEN Tracker
SIXTEEN Satellite Loop
SIXTEEN Alternate Tracking Map
SIXTEEN Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for SIXTEEN can be found here:
SIXTEEN spaghetti models page »
SIXTEEN Watches and Warnings
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN Tropical Cyclone Update
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN Public Advisory
JTWC Advisory
WTXS32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 56.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 56.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.1S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.3S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.2S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.4S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.4S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.8S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.4S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 56.6E.
19FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
361 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN meteo france Advisory
ZCZC 263 WTIO30 FMEE 191339 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 56.3 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65 24H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30 60H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30 72H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 120H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 205 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 55 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BARELY INTENSIFIED. INDEED, ON THE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 0933, THE ORGANIZATION OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY VISIBLE. FURTHERMORE, THE ASCAT PASSES OF 0530 AND 0615 DO NOT SHOW A CLEAR-CUT CLOSED CIRCULATION. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATE MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AT A T OF 2.5. IN THESE CONDITIONS, RSMC ESTIMATES THAT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE HAS NOT BEEN REACHED THIS EVENING AT 12UTC. SYSTEM N 07-20232024 IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH WINDS OF 30KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THEN TOMORROW, TUESDAY, IT SHOULD SLOW ITS COURSE, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST ON WEDNESDAY, PASSING CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ITS FINAL TRACK, WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT CLOSE TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS), WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AS WELL AS ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH-WEST. ON THIS POINT, THE ENSEMBLISTIC AND DETERMINIST GUIDELINES ARE VERY DISPERSED OVER THE SCENARIO, WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS. BASED ON THE ASSEMBLY MODELS AND CLOSER TO THE GFS MODEL, THE RSMC TRACK HAS BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, TAKING IT FURTHER OVER THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS AND CONTINUING ON A WESTERLY TURN FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK IS SIGNIFICANT FROM D+3 ONWARDS, IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ABOUT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OF TRACK FURTHER EAST (SPARING REUNION) OR FURTHER WEST (IMPACTING THE TWO ISLANDS MORE). THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE 07-20232024 SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: A STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH SHOULD ENABLE IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY, ACCELERATING SOUTHWARDS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR. THEN, FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT COULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN, ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL NEAR THE SISTER ISLANDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM IS COMPACT AND SMALL. STRONG VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT SPACE OF TIME, BUT THESE VARIATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT PRECISELY. THERE IS THEREFORE ALSO A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON: - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METRES FROM TUESDAY, TEMPORARILY 5 TO 6 METRES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5M FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DAY.= NNNN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
SIXTEEN storm path from cyclocane hybrid
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 knots | -13.9, 56.3 | ||
| 40 knots | -14.0, 58.0 | translation missing: en.MODERATE | |
| 50 knots | -14.5, 59.1 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 60 knots | -15.5, 59.6 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 70 knots | -17.0, 59.4 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 70 knots | -18.1, 58.8 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 70 knots | -19.6, 58.0 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 50 knots | -22.6, 56.4 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 35 knots | -23.4, 54.3 | translation missing: en.MODERATE |
SIXTEEN storm path from JTWC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 knots | -14.2, 56.1 | ||
| 50 knots | -14.1, 58.0 | ||
| 60 knots | -14.3, 59.3 | ||
| 65 knots | -15.2, 59.8 | ||
| 70 knots | -16.4, 59.7 | ||
| 65 knots | -19.4, 58.5 | ||
| 55 knots | -21.8, 57.2 | ||
| 45 knots | -22.4, 55.2 |
SIXTEEN storm path from meteo france
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 knots | -13.9, 56.3 | ||
| 40 knots | -14.0, 58.0 | translation missing: en.MODERATE | |
| 50 knots | -14.5, 59.1 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 60 knots | -15.5, 59.6 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 70 knots | -17.0, 59.4 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 70 knots | -18.1, 58.8 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 70 knots | -19.6, 58.0 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 50 knots | -22.6, 56.4 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 35 knots | -23.4, 54.3 | translation missing: en.MODERATE |
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