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POLO Current Status
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS POWERFUL POLO APPROACHES...
Current Wind Speed 104 knots / 120 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 105 knots / 120 MPH at
POLO Land Hazards
- WIND - Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of the warning area by tonight into early Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday and then eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in mainland northwestern Mexico on Tuesday.
- RAINFALL - Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
- SURGE - A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
- SURF - Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.
POLO Tracker
POLO Satellite Loop
POLO Alternate Tracking Map
POLO Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for POLO can be found here:
POLO Watches and Warnings
Hurricane POLO Tropical Cyclone Update
Hurricane POLO Public Advisory
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 271143 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 500 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026 ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS POWERFUL POLO APPROACHES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 113.7W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe * East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo * East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. * East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 113.7 West. Polo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of the warning area by tonight into early Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday and then eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in mainland northwestern Mexico on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Hurricane POLO Forecast Discussion
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270857 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026 The satellite presentation of Polo has remained fairly steady since the time the NOAA aircraft finished its mission about 7 hours ago. There are still hints of an eye in geostationary and microwave satellite images. The latest TAFB Dvorak currently intensity was 6.5/127 kt with 5.5/102 kt for the final-T number. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been running in the 105-110 kt range. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt for this advisory. Polo has turned toward the north-northwest, with the current motion estimated at 330/9 kt. A turn toward the north is expected later today, and then northeastward on Monday as the cyclone continues to move around the ridge and becomes increasingly affected by a mid- to upper-level trough moving in from the northwest. The largest source of uncertainty in the forecast continues to be the forward speed of Polo as it makes its expected northeastward turn between the aforementioned synoptic features. The model spread remains higher than unusual between 48 and 72 h, more so for the along-track forward speed of the storm after landfall. The NHC forecast follows the path of the GDMI and HCCA, but is a bit slower than those models. This forecast is essentially on top of the previous NHC forecast. Polo will continue to travel through an environment of fairly weak vertical wind shear and sea-surface temperatures near 29C for the next 24 h, but will be moving into a somewhat drier airmass. By hour 36, which is about 6 hours before landfall, southwesterly vertical wind shear will increase. Due to the favorable conditions until almost before the Baja California landfall, the NHC forecast is near the higher end of the guidance suite through hour 36, showing only gradual weakening. Thereafter, increasing wind shear and land interaction will cause rapid weakening. Although waters are warm in the Gulf of California, Polo is not expected to restrengthen there due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for the 2nd landfall (in mainland Mexico) is tricky. There is some possibility that Polo could still be at hurricane strength for the 2nd landfall, as suggested by the latest HAFS-A forecast. Polo should dissipate inland over northern Mexico by hour 72. Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the coast as soon as tonight or early Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions will likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja California Sur tonight into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 20.3N 113.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 21.6N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 114.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.1N 113.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 26.8N 111.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 28.9N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 31.3N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
POLO storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 knots | 20.7, -113.7 | ||
| 100 knots | 21.6, -114.0 | ||
| 95 knots | 23.4, -114.0 | ||
| 90 knots | 25.1, -113.1 | ||
| 70 knots | 26.8, -111.6 | ||
| 40 knots | 28.9, -109.3 | ||
| 25 knots | 31.3, -106.8 | translation missing: en.POST-TROP/INLAND | |
| 0 knots | DISSIPATED |
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