Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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NOLO Current Status
...TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORMS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...
Current Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 105 knots / 120 MPH at
NOLO Land Hazards
- WIND - Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area starting as early as late Friday.
- RAINFALL - Tropical Storm Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches expected across Maui. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible across Maui, especially in areas of high terrain, Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible.
- STORM SURGE - The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
- SURF - Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach the east and south-facing shores of the Big Island on Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NOLO Tracker
NOLO Satellite Loop
NOLO Alternate Tracking Map
NOLO Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for NOLO can be found here:
NOLO Watches and Warnings
Tropical Storm NOLO Tropical Cyclone Update
Tropical Storm NOLO Public Advisory
771 WTPA32 PHFO 232055 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 13 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORMS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 155.3W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Hawaii County. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 155.3 West. Nolo is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. A sharp turn to the north and north-northeast is expected on Thursday, with this motion continuing through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Big Island of Hawaii on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nolo can be found in the can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area starting as early as late Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches expected across Maui. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible across Maui, especially in areas of high terrain, Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nolo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach the east and south-facing shores of the Big Island on Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Tropical Storm NOLO Forecast Discussion
000 WTPA42 PHFO 232056 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 13 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2026 The system has continued to become better organized this morning, with tighter curved banding features noted on satellite imagery. The low-level circulation remains on the southeastern side of most of the deep convection. Satellite estimates are rising, and the bulk of the values now show this at or above 35 kt. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt, marking the formation of a tropical storm. Nolo is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. There is no change to the synoptic reasoning with a ridge located to the northeast of Hawaii forecast to weaken and push eastward as a mid- latitude trough deepens over the northwestern Hawaiian islands. This pattern is likely to the cause Nolo to slow down tonight and then turn north-northeastward by tomorrow with some increase in forward speed. The trough is forecast to move westward this weekend as the ridge rebuilds north of Hawaii, which should force a sharp leftward turn while the cyclone is close to the Big Island. It really depends on how far northeast Nolo gets before the ridge rebuilds, with the solutions that gain the most latitude in the next few days generally getting closest to Hawaii. Although there has been a small southward shift in the overall guidance on this cycle, there is still a large spread approaching 250 n mi from north-to-south by the weekend. The new forecast is nudged south on this advisory, but it should be considered low confidence. The current disorganized structure would seem to promote only slow strengthening during the next day or so under otherwise favorable environmental conditions. However, the system is likely to develop an inner core on Thursday, which could support rapid intensification given very warm waters, low shear and high mid-level moisture values. Intensity guidance is a little higher than the last cycle, and the NHC forecast is raised slightly from day 3 and beyond, showing a major hurricane near and west of Hawaii. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Nolo is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday as it moves northward, potentially making its closest approach to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Big Island, and residents there should follow advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do so. 2. The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely by Thursday and Friday. Periods of heavy rain are likely to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with isolated flooding possible. 3. Large and damaging waves are possible along the coast of the Big Island into the weekend. 4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 14.5N 155.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.7N 155.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 15.1N 155.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.8N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 16.7N 154.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 17.5N 154.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 17.8N 155.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 17.6N 158.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 18.8N 161.8W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
NOLO storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 knots | 14.5, -155.3 | ||
| 40 knots | 14.7, -155.6 | ||
| 50 knots | 15.1, -155.6 | ||
| 65 knots | 15.8, -155.2 | ||
| 80 knots | 16.7, -154.8 | ||
| 90 knots | 17.5, -154.8 | ||
| 100 knots | 17.8, -155.6 | ||
| 105 knots | 17.6, -158.5 | ||
| 100 knots | 18.8, -161.8 |
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