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PETER Current Status

...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH at

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

map of current weather alerts in the United States

current radar loop

NWS weather radar loop of the coastal areas

If you're looking for other US radar loops, check out Radar Monster.

future radar imagery

future radar image of the Atlantic Ocean basin showing future possible storms and future locations of current storms

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

PETER Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements

PETER Tracker

PETER Satellite Loop

visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression PETER from wisc.edu

PETER Alternate Tracking Map

PETER Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PETER can be found here:

PETER spaghetti models page »

PETER Watches and Warnings

National Hurricane Center image showing current coastal watches and warnings and future PETER predicted path

Tropical Depression PETER Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression PETER Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 220834
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 66.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter 
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 66.1 West. The 
depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A 
turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a 
north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the 
week.  On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue 
moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could 
produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with storm 
total accumulations up to 9 inches, across portions of the Virgin 
Islands, Puerto Rico, and northern portions of Hispaniola through 
Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small 
stream flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to
the Bahamas later today.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression PETER Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 220840
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
Peter is a disorganized tropical depression.  The low-level center 
is fully exposed and currently located a couple of hundred miles 
north of Puerto Rico.  Most of the associated thunderstorm activity 
remains displaced well east of the center due to about 30 kt of 
westerly shear.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a 
0206 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed a swath of 25-30 kt winds about 60 
n mi north of the center. The ASCAT data also showed that the 
circulation has become quite elongated.  Since the hostile 
conditions of strong westerly shear and dry air entrainment are not 
expected to let up, a continued gradual decay of Peter is forecast.  
The system is still predicted to become a remnant low in 36 hours 
and dissipate in a few days, but both of these could occur sooner.
 
The depression is moving northwestward, with the latest initial 
motion estimated to be 310/10 kt.  The cyclone is expected to turn 
northward by tonight and then northeastward by the end of the week 
as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a deep-layer 
trough.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the 
previous one and close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas 
of urban and small stream flooding through Thursday morning across 
northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin 
Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 21.5N  66.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.2N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 23.2N  66.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 24.1N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 25.1N  65.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/1800Z 26.5N  64.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

PETER storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 21.5, -66.1
30 knots 22.2, -66.7
25 knots 23.2, -66.9
25 knots 24.1, -66.5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
25 knots 25.1, -65.8 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
25 knots 26.5, -64.7 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
0 knots translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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