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Dianmu Storm Tracker

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Current View of the Northwest Pacific Basin

Tropical Outlook

Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is high.

Northwest Pacific Active Storms

No active storms


1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
         A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
         B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
      NEAR 11.2N 151.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY
      382 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. A 211052Z METOP-B PASS SHOWS THAT A
      DISCREET LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER
      THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
      SURROUNDED BY 12-17 KNOT WINDS. A BAND OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS EXTENDS
      FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
      IMAGERY AND A 210811Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING DISORGANIZED
      CONVECTION PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE ROTATION.
      ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
      DEVELOPMENT WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH A POINT
      SOURCE OR ANTICYCLONE ALOFT DIRECTION OVERHEAD THE LLCC, LOW (10 KT)
      VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
      TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
      99W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
      HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT ON THE DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT. GFS, ITS
      ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, INDICATING FAIRLY
      RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TROPICAL
      DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TROPICAL STORM
      STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR LESS, PRIOR TO PASSAGE THROUGH
      THE MARIANAS ISLAND CHAIN. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE MUCH MORE
      RESERVED, INDICATING LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU 48,
      WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS. OF NOTE, THE ASCAT PASS VERIFIED
      THE 1200Z GFS MODEL FORECAST POSITION AND WIND FIELD WITH HIGH
      CONFIDENCE, LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO THE GFS FORECAST.
      MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
      MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
      POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
      WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
      211230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
            (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
      11.2N 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY 168 NM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA,
      PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
      DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION
      ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 1755Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE FURTHER
      EMPHASIZES THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
      ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY LOW
      (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
      TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK
      NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE INDOCHINESE PENINSULA AS IT STEADILY
      INTENSIFIES WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATING A HIGHER LEVEL OF
      DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
      ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
      ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
      SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
      LOW.
            (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
         C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.


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