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LORENA Current Status

...LORENA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Current Wind Speed 55 knots / 65 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 90 knots / 105 MPH at

visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm LORENA from wisc.edu

LORENA Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
Belize
El Salvador
Informes Especiales

LORENA Tracker

LORENA Satellite Loop

visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm LORENA from wisc.edu

visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm LORENA from wisc.edu

LORENA Alternate Tracking Map

LORENA Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for LORENA can be found here:

LORENA spaghetti models page »

LORENA Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm LORENA Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Storm LORENA Public Advisory

454 
WTPZ32 KNHC 030242
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025
 
...LORENA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 109.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward
to Cabo San Lazaro
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena.
Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 109.7 West.  Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion 
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early 
Thursday.  A generally slow northward motion is expected to begin 
on Thursday and continue into late Friday.  On the forecast track, 
the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast 
of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday and then 
could approach the coast on Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, 
and Lorena is likely to become a hurricane overnight. Fast weakening 
is expected to begin on Thursday, and Lorena could be back to 
tropical storm status by early Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting
Baja California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by
Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15
inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through
Friday.  Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility.
 
Within the moisture surge ahead of Lorena, 1 to 2 inches of rain,
with localized totals to 4 inches, are expected from the northwest
Mexico states of Colima to Sinaloa northward into Arizona through
Friday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of
flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Lorena, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on Wednesday and Thursday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the west
coast of Baja California Sur beginning tonight and continuing
through Friday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Storm LORENA Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 030242
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
800 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025
 
A pair of AMSR2 and GMI microwave passes from several hours ago 
revealed that Lorena's structure has improved significantly through 
the day, with the 37-GHZ channel in particular showing a 
well-defined cyan ring.  The center is embedded beneath a Central 
Dense Overcast, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB 
are a consensus T3.5/55 kt.  This is also supported by some of the 
UW-CIMSS objective numbers, and the initial intensity is therefore 
set--possibly conservatively given the structure--at 55 kt.

Lorena has a low-level structure and small size that would make it 
a prime suspect for rapid intensification, especially since it will 
be in an environment of low shear and over warm ocean temperatures 
for the next 36 hours.  In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification 
(RI) index now shows a 3 in 4 chance of a 30-kt increase in 
Lorena's winds over the next 24 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast 
therefore explicitly shows RI during the next day or so and most 
closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest 
guidance, during that time.  After 36 hours, increasing shear and 
colder water temperatures are expected lead to weakening, which 
itself could be rapid due to Lorena's small size.  Although there 
is significant uncertainty on where Lorena will end up in 4-5 days 
(see discussion below), the cyclone will likely not exist anymore 
by day 5, and that is when dissipation is shown in the forecast.

Lorena continues to move northwestward, or 315/12 kt.  The first 36 
hours or so of the track forecast are fairly straightforward, with 
a slower northwestward motion expected while the cyclone moves 
around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered over 
Mexico.  Things are trickier after 36 hours.  Lorena will be moving 
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, but how much northward 
progress it makes will depend on how long it remains strong.  A 
minority of models, particularly the GFS, keep a stronger Lorena 
moving northeastward across the Baja California peninsula toward 
Sonora.  However, moderate to strong southwesterly shear is likely 
to set in over Lorena in 48-72 hours, and a good chunk of the other 
models, including many of the GEFS ensemble members, keep a 
weakening Lorena offshore the west coast of the Baja California 
peninsula with landfall never occurring.  This new NHC forecast 
blends the previous official forecast with the latest HCCA, Florida 
State Superensemble, and GEFS ensemble mean, showing a slower 
motion on day 4 and 5, and introducing the possibility that Lorena 
doesn't reach mainland Mexico as a tropical cyclone.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will begin 
to affect Baja California Sur on Wednesday, southwestern Sonora by 
Thursday, and contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona 
late Wednesday through Friday. This will increase the risk of 
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Mexico, 
especially in areas of higher terrain. Isolated to scattered 
instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona through 
Friday.
 
2. Although rapid intensification is possible through Wednesday 
while Lorena is offshore, the storm is expected to weaken while it 
approaches the Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday.  
Regardless, tropical storm conditions are possible through Thursday 
along portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur.  
Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the latest 
forecast updates.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 20.2N 109.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 21.2N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 22.3N 112.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 23.4N 113.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 24.6N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 25.6N 113.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 26.6N 113.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 28.1N 112.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

LORENA storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
55 knots 20.2, -109.7
70 knots 21.2, -111.1
85 knots 22.3, -112.6
90 knots 23.4, -113.5
75 knots 24.6, -113.9
55 knots 25.6, -113.8
40 knots 26.6, -113.3
25 knots 28.1, -112.4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
0 knots DISSIPATED

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