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Jose Current Status

...JOSE IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...

Current Wind Speed 60 knots / 70 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 95 knots / 110 MPH at

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

current radar loop

future radar imagery

(above image is an example - see my future radar site for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

Jose Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements
San Juan PR AL112017 **EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CORE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS**
SAN JUAN PR **EL OJO DEL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN IRMA PASANDO SOBRE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES**

Jose Tracker

Jose Satellite Loop

Jose Alternate Tracking Map

Jose Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for Jose can be found here:

Jose spaghetti models page »

Jose Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm Jose Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 061433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...JOSE IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 44.5W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Jose.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 44.5 West. Jose is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Continued gradual trengthening is forecast and Jose is
expected to become a hurricane by later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecasters CARBIN/BANN/LAMERS

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 061439
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Jose is better organized this morning with an initial Dvorak
intensity estimate of T3.5 from TAFB. This estimate lies between
a lower SAB T3.0 and CIMSS ADT T4.0. Since the initial Dvorak fix,
SSMIS microwave imagery is showing a well defined center and an
enhanced outer band, a precursor to potentially rapid
intensification. Therefore initial intensity has been increased to
60 knots, slightly higher than TAFB T number.

Initial position estimate is a compromise of TAFB and SAB
satellite fixes and a steady west-northwest motion at 15 knots
should continue on the southwest periphery of extensive subtropical
ridge to the north and northeast of Jose. Satellite imagery does
reveal drier air north of Jose but general trends suggest favorable
upper level outflow and, given considerable distance,
do any not expect any adverse influences from Irma to effect Jose
at this time. Both satellite and model guidance indicate Jose will
continue to exist within a very favorable synoptic regime to
support intensification through 72 hours.

Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is support
for somewhat stronger ridging north of Jose and official track
has subsequently been shifted slightly left/west of previous
forecast track but remains very close to model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 13.1N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 13.7N  46.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 14.3N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 14.8N  52.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 15.4N  55.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 17.3N  58.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 20.2N  61.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 23.6N  64.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecasters Carbin/Bann/Lamers

Jose storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
60 knots 13.1, -44.5
70 knots 13.7, -46.7
80 knots 14.3, -49.7
85 knots 14.8, -52.6
90 knots 15.4, -55.3
95 knots 17.3, -58.9
90 knots 20.2, -61.7
80 knots 23.6, -64.9


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