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Katia Current Status

...KATIA MOVING LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE...

Current Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 65 knots / 75 MPH at

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

current radar loop

future radar imagery

(above image is an example - see my future radar site for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

Katia Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements
San Juan PR AL112017 **EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CORE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS**
SAN JUAN PR **EL OJO DEL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN IRMA PASANDO SOBRE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES**

Katia Tracker

Katia Satellite Loop

Katia Alternate Tracking Map

Katia Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for Katia can be found here:

Katia spaghetti models page »

Katia Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm Katia Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Storm Katia Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 061432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Katia Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

...KATIA MOVING LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 95.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

A Hurricane Watch could be required for portions of the Mexican
state of Veracruz later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Katia was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 95.9 West. Katia is
moving slowly toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
little motion is expected during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast and Katia could become a hurricane
before it approaches the coast of Veracruz in a couple of days. An
Air Force reconnaissance plane will check Katia later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL:  Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over northern Veracruz, and 2 to 5 inches over far
southern Tamaulipas, northeast Puebla, and southern Veracruz through
Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
in northern Veracruz. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Storm Katia Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 061433
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Katia Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017

Satellite and microwave data indicate that the cloud pattern
associated with Katia is gradually becoming better organized with
abundant convection near the center and improving outflow. An
average of subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB as well as
objective Dvorak T-numbers from CIMMS yield an initial intensity of
40 kt, or perhaps a little bit higher.  An Air Force plane will
check Katia later today, and we will have a better estimate of the
structure of the cyclone.

Currently, the upper-level wind pattern is not very conducive for
strengthening, but most of the global models as well as the SHIPS
guidance indicate that the environment will become favorable with
weaker shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Katia to
become a hurricane before it approaches the coast of the state of
Veracruz.

Katia is embedded within weak steering currents, and the cyclone
will most likely meander in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
for the next day or two. After that time global models develop a
ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this flow pattern will
steer Katia southwestward toward the state of Veracruz. The NHC
forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and is
not very different from the previous NHC track.

Given the upward intensity trend and the forecast track toward
the coast, a hurricane watch could be required for a portion of
the coast of the state of Veracruz later today.  This system is
forecast to bring very heavy rains primarily to the state of
Veracruz during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 21.7N  95.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 21.4N  95.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 21.0N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 21.0N  95.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 20.7N  95.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 19.5N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

Katia storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
40 knots 21.7, -95.9
50 knots 21.4, -95.4
55 knots 21.0, -95.0
60 knots 21.0, -95.2
65 knots 20.7, -95.4
25 knots 19.5, -97.0 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/INLAND
0 knots , translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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