Cyclocane

WTXS32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNING NR 024    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 34.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 34.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 19.0S 33.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 18.6S 32.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 18.2S 31.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 34.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 142252Z SSMIS GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKENING 
SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED ON 
THE SMALL EYE IN EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE DIMINISHING EYEWALL 
CONVECTION AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 
INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE 
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, TC 18S HAS MADE LANDFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN. TC 18S HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE 
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT DIVERGES 
SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVER LAND. OVERALL, THERE IS 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. 
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE IDAI Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

IDAI storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2019-03-15T00:00:00.000Z	90 knots	-19.6, 34.8	dissipating
2019-03-15T12:00:00.000Z	75 knots	-19.0, 33.5	dissipating
2019-03-16T00:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-18.6, 32.5	dissipating
2019-03-16T12:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-18.2, 31.4	dissipated

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