Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

new youtube channel - we've just launched a new experimental youtube channel.

English Español Deutsch Français 日本語

This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

FIFTEEN-E Current Status

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH at

FIFTEEN-E Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
Belize
El Salvador
Informes Especiales

FIFTEEN-E Tracker

FIFTEEN-E Satellite Loop

visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E from wisc.edu

visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E from wisc.edu

FIFTEEN-E Alternate Tracking Map

FIFTEEN-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for FIFTEEN-E can be found here:

FIFTEEN-E spaghetti models page »

FIFTEEN-E Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Public Advisory

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 212041
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022
 
...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 
km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected this evening 
or tonight, and a slower west-northwestward motion should then 
continue over the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible in the next couple of days, 
and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or 
Thursday. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Jelsema

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 212042
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022
 
A new tropical depression has formed in the east Pacific basin.  
The satellite presentation of now Tropical Depression Fifteen-E 
has improved over the past 24 hours.  Visible imagery shows decent 
upper-level outflow in the western semicircle and cold cloud tops as 
low as -70 degrees C.  Due to the increase in convective 
organization, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, slightly 
higher than the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving just north of west at 275/9 kt. It is 
moving along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered 
over Texas.  This ridge is expected to steer the system to the 
west-northwest for the next couple of days at a gradually slower 
forward speed.  The model guidance is relatively tightly 
clustered and the NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model 
consensus aids.  

The environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally 
conducive for slight development over the next couple days. 
Oceanic surface temperatures, atmospheric moisture and vertical 
wind shear are likely to allow the depression to reach and maintain 
tropical cyclone strength for the next couple of days.  Beyond that 
time frame, the cyclone is forecast to traverse cooler waters and 
enter a drier, more stable environment.  The system is expected to 
become a remnant low by 72 hours and open into a trough shortly 
thereafter.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 17.1N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 17.5N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 17.8N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 18.2N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 18.5N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Jelsema

FIFTEEN-E storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 17.1, -105.3
35 knots 17.5, -106.4
35 knots 17.8, -107.8
35 knots 17.9, -108.9
35 knots 18.2, -110.0
30 knots 18.5, -111.5
25 knots 18.9, -112.6 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
0 knots translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


Hurricane Forecast   |   Tropical Storm Risk   |   Hurricane Spaghetti Models   |   Cyclone and Hurricane Names

Cyclocane   |   National Hurricane Center   |   Joint Typhoon Warning Center   |   Japan Meteorological Agency

site by Hayley Croft

Want to help support this site?

Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane.

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.