Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
Hayley here - The newish map is now live. So is a dark mode that only works for the map. If you have see any issues or have other things you want me to add, take the survey.
English Español Deutsch Français 日本語
This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
FIFTEEN-E Current Status
...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...
Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 100 knots / 115 MPH at
FIFTEEN-E Land Hazards
- WIND - There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track of this system.
- RAINFALL - Tropical Depression Fifteen-E will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches expected across Maui. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible across Maui, especially in areas of high terrain, Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible.
- SURF - Swells generated by Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are expected to reach the east and south-facing shores of the Big Island on Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
FIFTEEN-E Tracker
FIFTEEN-E Satellite Loop
FIFTEEN-E Alternate Tracking Map
FIFTEEN-E Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for FIFTEEN-E can be found here:
FIFTEEN-E spaghetti models page »
FIFTEEN-E Watches and Warnings
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Tropical Cyclone Update
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Public Advisory
000 WTPA32 PHFO 231448 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 12 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2026 ...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 154.4W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of the state later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 154.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected for the next day or so. A sharp turn to the north and north-northeast is expected on Thursday, with this motion continuing through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Big Island of Hawaii on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today, with further strengthening to a hurricane likely on Thursday and possibly a major hurricane by this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO. WIND: There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track of this system. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fifteen-E will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches expected across Maui. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible across Maui, especially in areas of high terrain, Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are expected to reach the east and south-facing shores of the Big Island on Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion
000 WTPA42 PHFO 231449 TCDCP2 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 12 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2026 Satellite imagery shows that the depression is becoming better organized. Banding features are becoming more defined on the western and northern sides of the system, with expanding outflow noted. However, the low-level circulation appears to be on the southeastern edge of the deep convection and isn't well aligned with the deep convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates have a large spread this morning, from about 25-40 kt. Without definitive evidence it has become a tropical storm, the initial wind speed will stay 30 kt, which is also consistent with winds from a recent OSCAT scatterometer pass. The depression has slowed since the last advisory and seems to be moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A ridge to the northeast of Hawaii is forecast to weaken and slide eastward as a mid- latitude trough drops over the northwestern Hawaiian islands. This evolution is likely to the cause the cyclone to slow down later today or tonight and then turn northward or north- northeastward by tomorrow with some increase in forward speed. The trough is forecast to move westward this weekend as the ridge rebuilds north of Hawaii, which should force a sharp westward turn while the cyclone is close to the Big Island. At this time frame, it is impossible to know exactly when that turn will happen and, unsurprisingly, there is a large north-south spread in the guidance. Our best guidance is on the northern side of the track envelope, and new NHC forecast remains essentially the same as the last advisory. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially on the Big Island, should closely monitor the system, with life-threatening catastrophic flooding possible over the steep terrain on this track. The depression should intensify slowly at first, given the current structure of the low-level center not co-located with the mid-level circulation as seen on satellite. However, after the system develops an inner core, the environment seems conducive for significant strengthening, with low shear, high mid-level moisture and SSTs from 28-29C. The rapid intensification probabilities are increasing, and the best model guidance is showing this as a major hurricane in a few days. Given the environment and the best-performing aids (Google DeepMind and HCCA) again showing major-hurricane strength, the NHC forecast is raised from the previous one and shows the cyclone as a major hurricane when it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and a hurricane on Thursday as it turns northward, potentially making its closest approach to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands, and a Hurricane Watch may be required for the Big Island later today. 2. The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely by Thursday and Friday. Periods of heavy rain are likely to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with isolated flooding possible. 3. Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.5N 154.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.7N 155.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.0N 155.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 15.7N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 16.7N 154.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 17.6N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.2N 154.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 18.1N 157.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 18.7N 160.2W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
FIFTEEN-E storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 knots | 14.5, -154.4 | ||
| 40 knots | 14.7, -155.2 | ||
| 50 knots | 15.0, -155.5 | ||
| 65 knots | 15.7, -155.2 | ||
| 80 knots | 16.7, -154.8 | ||
| 90 knots | 17.6, -154.5 | ||
| 100 knots | 18.2, -154.7 | ||
| 100 knots | 18.1, -157.0 | ||
| 95 knots | 18.7, -160.2 |
site by Hayley Croft
Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help support this site:
- Tell your friends about Cyclocane
- Buy something through this Amazon Cyclocane link
- make a donation - totally optional but completely appreciated
Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane.
Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.