Cyclocane

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FIFTEEN-E Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH at 2025-10-05T06:00:00.000Z

FIFTEEN-E Land Hazards

FIFTEEN-E Tracker

FIFTEEN-E Satellite Loop

FIFTEEN-E Alternate Tracking Map

FIFTEEN-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for FIFTEEN-E can be found here:

FIFTEEN-E spaghetti models page »

FIFTEEN-E Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Public Advisory

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 300831
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
200 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 113.2W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 113.2 West. 
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 
km/h).  This general motion is expected to continue today.  A motion
toward the north-northwest is forecast later today through early 
Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late 
Thursday into the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Slight strengthening is forecast today, with Fifteen-E expected to 
become a tropical storm later today, followed by little change in 
strength during the next couple of days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

648 
WTPZ45 KNHC 300833
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
200 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

The area of low pressure located well south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has become better 
organized over the past several hours.  Satellite imagery shows 
persistent convection and the development of a well-defined curved 
band.  In addition, a recent 0355 UTC Metop-B ASCAT pass revealed a 
well-defined center along with a couple of 30-kt wind barbs.  As a 
result, the system has met the criteria to be classified as a 
tropical cyclone.  The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB were 2.0/30 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively.  Based 
on a blend of these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical 
Depression Fifteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Fifteen-E is estimated to be moving slowly west-northwestward, or 
295 degrees at 4 kt.  This west-northwestward motion is expected to 
continue today, along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level 
ridge situated north of the cyclone.  A turn toward the 
north-northwest is expected later today as a weak low to the north 
of Fifteen-E erodes the ridge, with this general motion likely 
continuing through around 48 hours.  Thereafter, a building 
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to steer 
Fifteen-E west-northwestward beyond 48 hours through the end of the 
forecast period.  The official track forecast lies near the middle 
of the guidance envelope and is closest to the TVCE consensus aid.

Fifteen-E will remain over warm waters and within a moist 
environment during the next several days, but moderate to strong 
east-northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder 
significant intensification.  Some slight strengthening is forecast 
during the next 12 hours, and Fifteen-E is expected to reach 
tropical storm strength later today.  Little change in strength is 
anticipated through much of the forecast period, followed by some 
modest strengthening on days 4 and 5 as the shear is forecast to 
relax slightly.  The intensity forecast is of low confidence and 
remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to a 
blend of the SHIPS and HCCA intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z  9.4N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z  9.8N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 10.8N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 11.8N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 12.6N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 13.1N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 13.5N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 15.0N 120.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

FIFTEEN-E storm path from NHC

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