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ELIDA Current Status

...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...

Current Wind Speed 80 knots / 90 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 80 knots / 90 MPH at

ELIDA Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
Belize
El Salvador
Informes Especiales

ELIDA Tracker

ELIDA Satellite Loop

ELIDA Alternate Tracking Map

ELIDA Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for ELIDA can be found here:

ELIDA spaghetti models page »

ELIDA Watches and Warnings

Hurricane ELIDA Tropical Cyclone Update

Hurricane ELIDA Public Advisory

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 110843
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020
 
...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 113.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located 
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 113.0 West. Elida is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general 
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through 
Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning. Weakening 
is expected to begin by late afternoon and continue into Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Hurricane ELIDA Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 110844
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Elida Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020
 
Elida's convective pattern has become significantly better organized 
since the 0600Z T4.5/77-kt Dvorak satellite classifications from 
TAFB and SAB. A 10-nmi-diameter eye has become embedded within a 
white ring (cloud tops colder than -70C), while the upper-level 
outflow has expanded and become more symmetrical. In addition, 
earlier WindSat microwave satellite data indicated that Elida 
possessed a 10-nmi-wide low-level eye. Based on these data and the 
recent improvement in Elida's convective and eye structure, the 
intensity has been increased to a conservative 80 kt.
 
Elida's motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. So 
much for yesterday's forecast calling for the hurricane to begin 
turning more westward by this time. Elida has maintained a motion of 
300 degrees for the past 48 h or so, and there doesn't appear to be 
any significant steering feature to change that to a westward course 
over the next few days. In fact, some of the global models actually 
turn Elida northward into a mid-level ridge after 48 hours. For 
now, however, the official forecast track keeps the hurricane 
moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward, accompanied by 
a gradual decrease in forward speed, throughout the forecast 
period. The new track forecast lies between the previous advisory 
track to the south and the consensus models to the north.

Elida is likely close to reaching its peak intensity, although some 
additional slight strengthening is still possible this morning 
before the hurricane starts moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface 
temperatures (SST) in about 12 h. Thereafter, SSTs steadily decrease 
along the path of the cyclone, dropping to below 24C by 36 hours and 
to near 22C by 72 hours. Thus, steady weakening is forecast after 12 
hours with Elida becoming a remnant low by 48 h, followed by 
continued weakening until the cyclone dissipates in 96-120 hours. 
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to both the previous 
advisory and the latest NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity 
models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 20.7N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

ELIDA storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
80 knots 20.7, -113.0
75 knots 21.5, -114.8
65 knots 22.4, -117.1
45 knots 23.4, -119.0
30 knots 24.1, -120.3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
25 knots 25.0, -121.2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
20 knots 25.8, -122.3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
20 knots 27.7, -124.0 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
0 knots translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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