Cyclocane

ZCZC 472
WTIO30 FMEE 170622 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/11/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
2.A POSITION 2021/02/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 37.5 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/17 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 100
24H: 2021/02/18 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 95 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 85 NW: 140
36H: 2021/02/18 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 110 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 95 NW: 130
48H: 2021/02/19 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 35 SW: 75 NW: 65
60H: 2021/02/19 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 65
72H: 2021/02/20 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/21 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
120H: 2021/02/22 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 240 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED VERY STRONG
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, CLOSE TO THE CENTRE OF
SYSTEM 11 WITH PARTICULARLY COLD PEAKS. MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0319Z AND
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CENTRE STILL
APPEARS TO BE AT THE SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN
THE ABSENCE OF RECENT ASCENT DATA AND WITHOUT ANY SIGN OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION ORGANISATION, THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 30KT.
THE SYSTEM SEEMS SLOWED DOWN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPOSSITE STEERING
FLOWS. ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIAL HIGH,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPOSED TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHILE TO THE
NORTHEAST, A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BLOWS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS
SITUATION MAKES THE SHORT-RANGE FORECAST PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. FROM
TOMORROW THURSDAY, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS REBUILDING OVER MADAGASCAR,
BENDING THE TRACK SOUTHWARD ON ITS WESTERN EDGE. WITH THE PERSISTENCE
OF A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY SLOW. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL SHOULD FAVOR AN ACCELERATION
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS TRACK IS IN AGRREMENT WITH THE MAIN AMERICAN AND
FRENCH GUIDANCE AND ALSO SOME MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN EPS.
THE SYSTEM IS SUBJECT TO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR BELOW THE UPPER RIDGE, IN
A HUMID ENVIRONMENT AT ALL LEVELS. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE,
EXCELLENT ON THE POLAR SIDE THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY BURST YESTERDAY,
IS NOT OPTIMAL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THE FASTEST
MONSOON FLOW LIES QUITE FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THIS CONFIGURATION
FAVOURS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WHICH COULD LIMIT THE DEEPENING RATE
AT SHORT RANGE. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, A FASTER INTENSIFICATION IS
LIKELY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. THESE
FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH WARM WATERS, SHOULD ALLOW SYSTEM
11 TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
HOWEVER, AT LONGER RANGE, CLOSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT DRY AIR
INTO THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS WEAKENING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEAVE THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS ON EDGE OF SYSTEM 11
PATH. A LANDFALL IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BUT IT CAN'T BE
EXCLUDED FOR NOW. HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF MOZAMBIQUE IN RELATION WITH THIS LOW.=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

11 storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2021-02-17T06:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-20.7, 37.5
2021-02-17T18:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-21.4, 37.7	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2021-02-18T06:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-22.2, 37.9	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2021-02-18T18:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-23.2, 37.8	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2021-02-19T06:00:00.000Z	55 knots	-24.1, 37.6	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2021-02-19T18:00:00.000Z	65 knots	-24.9, 37.2	translation missing: en.TROPICAL
2021-02-20T06:00:00.000Z	75 knots	-25.8, 36.9	translation missing: en.TROPICAL
2021-02-21T06:00:00.000Z	90 knots	-28.6, 37.4	translation missing: en.INTENSE
2021-02-22T06:00:00.000Z	80 knots	-31.7, 42.4	translation missing: en.TROPICAL

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