Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

TWO Current Status

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... ...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 65 knots / 75 MPH at

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

current radar loop

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

TWO Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements
New Orleans LA AL022019 ...SYSTEM IS ALMOST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
Lake Charles LA AL022019 **DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON**

TWO Tracker

TWO Satellite Loop

TWO Alternate Tracking Map

TWO Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for TWO can be found here:

TWO spaghetti models page »

TWO Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 111153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
700 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 88.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Warnings and additional watches may be required for portions of the
northern Gulf coast later today.  Interests elsewhere along the U.S.
Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.6 North, longitude 88.5 West.  The system is moving toward the
west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on
Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday.  On the
forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana
coast this weekend.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late
Friday.

The associated thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming
better organized, and the disturbance is expected to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days ...high...near 100 percent

The minimum central pressure based on recent Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 20 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday
across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 110846
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The convective activity associated with the broad area of low
pressure is still spread out, and the center of circulation
is not well defined at this time.  Both surface and scatterometer
data indicate that the winds remain near 25 kt.  The modest
northerly shear affecting the system should not hamper further
development.  Overall, the environmental conditions still favor the
formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today,
and as the system moves over warm waters, strengthening is
indicated.  The intensity models are not as aggressive as they were
in previous runs, but still bring the disturbance to hurricane
status in about 48 hour or so, as the disturbance approaches the
coast.

During the past several hours, the low pressure area has barely
moved due to weak steering currents.  However, a westward or
260 degrees drift at about 4 kt should begin soon.  The system is
heading toward a weakness in the ridge, and this pattern should
induce a slow turn toward the west-northwest and then north
during the next 3 to 5 days.  The NHC track forecast continues to
be located on the western edge of the guidance envelope, and it has
been adjusted slightly eastward to be more consistent with the
multi-model ensemble TVCA.   It should be noted that track errors
are typically larger for potential tropical cyclones than more
mature systems.  In addition, the run-to-run consistency in the
track models has been poor, so confidence in the details of the
forecast is not high at the moment.


Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed later today. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings
could be required. Residents in the watch area should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 27.5N  88.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  11/1800Z 27.5N  88.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 27.7N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 28.0N  90.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 28.5N  91.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 31.0N  91.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  15/0600Z 33.5N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  16/0600Z 36.0N  90.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

TWO storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 27.6, -88.5
30 knots 27.5, -88.7
40 knots 27.7, -89.5
50 knots 28.0, -90.3
65 knots 28.5, -91.1
45 knots 31.0, -91.7 translation missing: en.INLAND
30 knots 33.5, -92.0 translation missing: en.INLAND
20 knots 36.0, -90.9 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE


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