( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
English Español Deutsch Français 日本語
This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 95 knots / 109 MPH at
Spaghetti models for TWENTY can be found here:
TWENTY spaghetti models page »
WTXS31 PGTW 260300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251321ZMAR2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 50.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 50.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 12.7S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 13.1S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 13.5S 50.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 14.0S 50.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 15.7S 51.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.1S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.1S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 50.7E. 26MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 251330).// NNNN
ZCZC 576 WTIO30 FMEE 260023 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2024/03/26 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 50.9 E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/03/26 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 85 24H: 2024/03/27 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 36H: 2024/03/27 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45 48H: 2024/03/28 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 60H: 2024/03/28 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 72H: 2024/03/29 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/03/30 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35 120H: 2024/03/31 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH MARKED AND VERY COLD, HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NEAR THE CENTER AND HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE. THE SYSTEM THEREFORE REMAINED ANALYZED AS A 30KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE DATA, THIS ANALYSIS AND THE ONE ON THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. UPPER DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. INITIALLY, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY MOSTLY WESTWARD DUE TO THE TRADE WIND SURGE. THEN IT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THIS TUESDAY, IN RESPONSE TO WEAK, CONTRADICTORY MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE OVER AND STEER THE TRAJECTORY SOUTH TO SOUTH-WESTWARD, BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE MALAGASY COAST. A LANDFALL IS NOT RULED OUT. UNCERTAINTY IS PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO ERRORS IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM, IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-EASTWARDS. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. INDEED, THE SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE FEATURING SEVERAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE OCEAN POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY ALSO SIGNIFICANT, WITH DEEP, WARM WATERS. INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY RAPID INTENSIFICATION THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, IS THEREFORE LIKELY. THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS THUS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. UNDERLYING WATERS COOLING THROUGH UPWELLING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, GIVEN THE SPEED AT WHICH THE STORM IS MOVING, WHICH COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED PARTICULARLY LIKELY AT PRESENT, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH THE MALAGASY LANDS, OR IN THE EVENT OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD HAVE A MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, WITH TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS: EITHER A RAPID MOTION IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR, WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY AS SHOWN BY GFS, OR A SLOWER MOTION AND MORE PENETRATING SHEAR, WILL LEAD TO DRY AIR INTRUSION AND RAPID WEAKENING, AS SHOWN BY IFS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CURRENTLY BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MADAGASCAR : - THE SYSTEM'S INTENSE CORE SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE (MOVING CLOSE BY AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY) BUT A DIRECT IMPACT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. - HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OVER EASTERN ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND NORTHERN TOAMASINA PROVINCE. ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PERIOD OF 200 TO 300 MM AT LEAST ARE LIKELY, AND LOCALLY MORE. - GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE COASTLINE FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. STORM FORCE WIND POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. - WAVES FROM 4 TO 6 METRES FROM TONIGHT UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY ON THE EASTER COAST OF ANTISIRANANA PROVINCE, PEAKING AT 6 TO 9 METERS WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT.= NNNN
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
30 knots | -12.8, 50.9 | ||
40 knots | -13.0, 50.7 | translation missing: en.MODERATE | |
60 knots | -13.5, 50.6 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
75 knots | -13.8, 50.6 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
85 knots | -14.4, 50.6 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
90 knots | -15.0, 51.0 | translation missing: en.INTENSE | |
90 knots | -15.5, 51.7 | translation missing: en.INTENSE | |
70 knots | -16.8, 54.3 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
55 knots | -18.9, 56.4 | translation missing: en.SEVERE |
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
35 knots | -12.7, 50.8 | ||
45 knots | -12.7, 50.6 | ||
60 knots | -13.1, 50.5 | ||
70 knots | -13.5, 50.4 | ||
80 knots | -14.0, 50.4 | ||
95 knots | -15.7, 51.3 | ||
75 knots | -17.1, 53.2 | ||
60 knots | -19.1, 55.7 |
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
30 knots | -12.8, 50.9 | ||
40 knots | -13.0, 50.7 | translation missing: en.MODERATE | |
60 knots | -13.5, 50.6 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
75 knots | -13.8, 50.6 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
85 knots | -14.4, 50.6 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
90 knots | -15.0, 51.0 | translation missing: en.INTENSE | |
90 knots | -15.5, 51.7 | translation missing: en.INTENSE | |
70 knots | -16.8, 54.3 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
55 knots | -18.9, 56.4 | translation missing: en.SEVERE |
site by Hayley Croft
Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane.
Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.