Cyclocane

(cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker)

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THREE-C Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 85 knots / 100 MPH at 2015-08-26T06:00:00Z

THREE-C Land Hazards

No land hazards or hazard data not available for this storm.

THREE-C Tracker

THREE-C Satellite Loop

THREE-C Alternate Tracking Map

Alternate tracking maps are only available on NHC tracked storms.

THREE-C Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for THREE-C can be found here:

THREE-C spaghetti models page »

THREE-C Watches and Warnings

The Watches and Warnings Map is only availble on NHC tracked storms.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C Public Advisory

000
WTPA31 PHFO 210837
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
1100 PM HST THU AUG 20 2015
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 151.3W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.3 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THREE-C IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.
 
$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C Forecast Discussion

000
WTPA41 PHFO 210855
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
1100 PM HST THU AUG 20 2015
 
FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
CONTINUED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...REMOVED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION BY ABOUT 150 MILES. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. WHILE IT IS CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS IS THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
/LLCC/...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FOLLOW THE ASSUMPTION MADE IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THAT A DIFFERENT LLCC EXISTS...OR WILL SOON
DEVELOP...CLOSER TO THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING
GENERALLY WESTWARD. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE CYCLONE IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ANALYZED POSITION OF THE LLCC...RANGE FROM
1.0/25 KT TO 2.5/35 KT. WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
NOTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 300/13 KT. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POSITION OF
THE LLCC...THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS AS PRESENTED
PREVIOUSLY. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THREE-C MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
STEERED BY WESTWARD-BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
UPDATED FORECAST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS...AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON DAYS 4
AND 5...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE MAIN DYNAMICAL 
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS TURN...WITH THE 
HWRF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF ONCE 
AGAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE LONGER IT TAKES FOR THIS BREAK TO 
DEVELOP...THE FARTHER WEST THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE 
TURNING...AND THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CONTAIN A 
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE FORECAST POSITIONS ON DAY 4 
AND 5 LIE CLOSE TO THE HWRF GUIDANCE...AND A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE LATEST ECMWF 
GUIDANCE...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE TVCN CONSENSUS.
 
THREE-C IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...ABOVE 29C IN THE LATEST
ANALYSIS...AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM RAMMB-CIRA
INDICATES INCREASING VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. EASTERLY SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN
REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH DAY 3. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN...BUT LATEST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
WHILE THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN SLOWED...AND REPRESENTS A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. 

U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPLOYING TO HAWAII AND A WC-130J IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN
INITIAL PASS THROUGH THREE-C FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE
VALUABLE DATA TO HELP BETTER DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE WIND FIELD.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 12.3N 151.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 13.0N 153.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 13.9N 156.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 15.0N 159.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 16.0N 161.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 18.0N 163.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 19.5N 162.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 21.0N 161.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

THREE-C storm path from CPHC

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.