Cyclocane

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

SIXTEEN-E Current Status

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...

Current Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH at

SIXTEEN-E Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
Belize
El Salvador
Informes Especiales

SIXTEEN-E Tracker

SIXTEEN-E Satellite Loop

SIXTEEN-E Alternate Tracking Map

SIXTEEN-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for SIXTEEN-E can be found here:

SIXTEEN-E spaghetti models page »

SIXTEEN-E Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 282344
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
700 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 100.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.1 North, longitude 100.3 West. The system has been meandering
during the day, but it should begin to move toward the northwest
near 8 mph (13 km/h) tonight. This motion is expected to continue
during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the
cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or
Sunday.  However, if the center forms closer to the coast and
interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then
occur.

Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, this system
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to
Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 282041
TCDEP1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The large area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of
Mexico has not been able to consolidate yet and still there is
no evidence of a well-defined center.  Satellite animation continue
to suggest that a circulation could be forming just south of
Acapulco, but it is still elongated. Latest ASCAT measured
tropical-storm-force winds well south of the possible developing
center.

Since the large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the
high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal
for strengthening, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest
increase in winds. The disturbance could become a tropical storm at
any time later tonight or Sunday before it reaches the coast.
However, if the system survives the high terrain of the state of
Jalisco, it could gather some additional strength when it emerges in
the Gulf of California and before the shear increases. By the end of
the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and a large
portion of the circulation will be overland. This should result in
weakening.

The initial motion continues to be highly uncertain since the
disturbance does not have a center good enough to track. However,
a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico should continue
to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and
then north-northwest very close or over the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution
provided by the reliable models.

As mentioned this morning, If the system develops its center closer
to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland
earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. In fact,
this is the solution of this morning's GFS.  Regardless of
development, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 15.0N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

SIXTEEN-E storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
35 knots 15.1, -100.3
40 knots 16.0, -101.0 TROPICAL STORM
40 knots 18.0, -103.0
35 knots 20.0, -105.5 translation missing: en.INLAND
40 knots 22.0, -107.0 translation missing: en.OVER WATER
35 knots 25.0, -109.0 translation missing: en.OVER WATER
25 knots 26.0, -109.5 translation missing: en.INLAND
20 knots 27.0, -110.0 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE


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