Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

SIX Current Status

Current Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 52 MPH at

SIX Land Hazards

Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega
NO HEAVY RAIN WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS / AUCUN AVIS DE FORTES PLUIES N'EST EN VIGUEUR A MAURICE
La Réunion

SIX Tracker

SIX Satellite Loop

SIX Alternate Tracking Map

SIX Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for SIX can be found here:

SIX spaghetti models page »

SIX Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX Public Advisory

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BLAKE) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 121.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 121.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.7S 122.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 18.0S 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 19.2S 120.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 20.3S 120.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.2S 120.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 121.9E.
06JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BLAKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 
NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND 
A LARGE RAINBAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 052214Z WINDSAT 37 
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
IS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SPIRAL BANDING. BECAUSE NEITHER IMAGE 
SOURCE IS PARTICULARLY DEFINITIVE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). WITH GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT 
FAVORABLE. TC 06S IS TRACKING BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM 
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. ONCE THAT OCCURS, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT 
SOUTHWESTWARD. PRIOR TO TAU 48, TC 06S WILL MAKE LANDFALL. SHORTLY 
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN 
POLEWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION UNTIL 
LAND INTERACTION CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. 
DESPITE FALLING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD, THE CYCLONE MAY REMAIN 
INTACT OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE BEING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE 
TIMING OF WHEN THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.  
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS 
AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

SIX storm path from JTWC

Time Speed Location Status
35 knots -15.9, 121.9
40 knots -16.7, 122.0
45 knots -18.0, 121.6
45 knots -19.2, 120.9
40 knots -20.3, 120.1 dissipating
30 knots -23.2, 120.2 dissipated


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