( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 40 knots / 46 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / 46 MPH at
Spaghetti models for SERU can be found here:
WTPS33 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 23.0S 172.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 172.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.1S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.1S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 172.7E.
28FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM
EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE ANALYSIS REVEALED A DECOUPLING HAS
OCCURRED DUE TO INCREASINGLY HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
HAS RESULTED IN A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE VORTEX STRUCTURE TILTS
BEYOND REPAIR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE FIELD IS DISPLACED
ASYMMETRICALLY EAST AND POLEWARD OF CENTER, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE
CLASSIFICATION OF THIS HYBRID SYSTEM AS NOW FULLY SUBTROPICAL.
ADDITIONALLY, THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS ASSESSED AS FRONTAL.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WITH
ASSOCIATED WINDS DECREASING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL
EVENTUALLY FILL AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EXISTING SPCZ BOUNDARY
TO WHICH IT REMAINS AFFIXED. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 280000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS
18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 knots | -23.0, 172.5 | ||
| 35 knots | -23.1, 173.1 | ||
| 30 knots | -23.1, 173.7 |
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