Cyclocane
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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
PTC-ONE Current Status
...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....
Current Wind Speed 26 knots / 30 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH at
Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite
current US watches/warnings
live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq
future radar imagery - my future radar
future radar imagery
(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)
If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.
PTC-ONE Land Hazards
NWS Local Hurricane Statements
- No warnings
- RAINFALL - Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.
- WIND - Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning early Wednesday.
- STORM SURGE - The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
- SURF - Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
- TORNADO - A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
PTC-ONE Tracker
PTC-ONE Satellite Loop
PTC-ONE Alternate Tracking Map
PTC-ONE Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for PTC-ONE can be found here:
PTC-ONE spaghetti models page »
PTC-ONE Watches and Warnings
Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-ONE Tropical Cyclone Update
Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-ONE Public Advisory
000 WTNT31 KNHC 161758 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE.... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 97.8W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sargent to Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 97.8 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning early Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-ONE Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT41 KNHC 161457 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on surface and radar data. The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect the low to continue moving in that general direction with some increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus HCCA. The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the Texas Coast and Louisiana. 2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 27.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
PTC-ONE storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 knots | 27.1, -97.8 | ||
| 30 knots | 27.4, -97.2 | translation missing: en.POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE | |
| 35 knots | 28.2, -95.8 | TROPICAL STORM | |
| 35 knots | 29.6, -93.9 | ||
| 25 knots | 31.6, -91.7 | INLAND | |
| 0 knots | DISSIPATED |
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