Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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PTC-NINE Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 65 knots / 75 MPH at 2025-09-30T06:00:00.000Z

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq

future radar imagery - my future radar

current radar loop

If you're looking for other US radar loops, check out Radar Monster.

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

PTC-NINE Land Hazards

• WIND - Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.
• RAINFALL - The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible in eastern Cuba, and 4 to 8 inches of rain in the Bahamas. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica.
• STORM SURGE - A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
• SURF - Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

PTC-NINE Tracker

PTC-NINE Satellite Loop

PTC-NINE Alternate Tracking Map

PTC-NINE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PTC-NINE can be found here:

PTC-NINE spaghetti models page »

PTC-NINE Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-NINE Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-NINE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 271150
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
 
...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 75.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 
22.0 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the 
northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is 
expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the 
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across 
the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the 
southeast U.S. coast early next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
The system is expected to become a tropical depression or storm 
later today or tonight. Gradual strengthening is expected 
thereafter, with the system forecast to become a hurricane by late 
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days... high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane 
Hunter dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning tonight or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas 
on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 
8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible 
in eastern Cuba, and 4 to 8 inches of rain in the Bahamas. This 
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides 
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, 
Hispaniola, and Jamaica.
 
Moisture from the disturbance will lead to a threat of heavy 
rainfall well to the north across portions of the Southeast U.S. and 
Virginia into early next week which could cause flash, urban, and 
river flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service 
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto 
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to 
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-NINE Forecast Discussion

945 
WTNT44 KNHC 270843
TCDAT4
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Satellite imagery this morning shows an increase in vorticity at 
the western edge of a convective cluster located near the Ragged 
Islands in the Bahamas. However, this has not reached the stage 
where it could be called a well-defined center of circulation.  
Based on this, the system is continued as a potential tropical 
cyclone with maximum winds near 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/6 kt.  Later today, 
the system should turn north-northwestward between the subtropical 
ridge over the Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the 
southeastern United States.  The track models are in good 
agreement during this part of the system's life, and this portion 
of the new forecast track is almost the same as the previous track. 
After 72 h, the guidance continues to be quite divergent. Most of 
the deterministic and consensus models now show a turn toward the 
east caused by Hurricane Humberto passing to the east of the system 
and breaking down the ridge. However, the HMON and HAFS-A models 
still show landfall in the southeastern United States, as do several 
ECMWF and GFS ensemble members. Given the current guidance and the 
trends, the new forecast track calls for a slow turn to the 
northeast and east after 72 h, but at a much slower forward speed 
than most of the guidance. It should be noted that while this 
forecast keeps the system offshore, it would still be large enough 
and close enough to cause wind and coastal flooding impacts along
the southeastern U.S. coast, as well as heavy rainfall/flooding
concerns in inland areas.

Based on current trends in the satellite imagery and the global 
models, the disturbance will likely take another 12-18 h to become 
a tropical cyclone. After that happens, strengthening is expected 
through 72 h as the system moves through an upper-level wind 
environment of moderate shear and strong divergence. The intensity 
forecast continues to show the system reaching hurricane strength 
in 3-4 days, which is in agreement with the intensity consensus. 
Some weakening is expected by 120 h due to shear and possible 
interaction with a frontal system approaching from the northwest.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm this
weekend and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
central and northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are 
in effect.

2. Rainfall associated with this system is expected to impact 
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the Bahamas through the 
weekend, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding.  
Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain. 
 
3.  There is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall early next
week from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the
southern Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and
river flooding.
 
4. The system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where
there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Residents in that
area should monitor updates to the forecast and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 21.9N  75.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  27/1800Z 22.5N  76.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  28/0600Z 23.8N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 36H  28/1800Z 25.3N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 27.0N  77.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 28.8N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 30.2N  78.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 31.5N  78.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 31.5N  77.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

PTC-NINE storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

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