Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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PTC-NINE Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 100 knots / 115 MPH at 2024-09-26T18:00:00.000Z

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq

future radar imagery - my future radar

current radar loop

If you're looking for other US radar loops, check out Radar Monster.

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

PTC-NINE Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.
• STORM SURGE - The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
• WIND - Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida Panhandle.
• SURF - Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

PTC-NINE Tracker

PTC-NINE Satellite Loop

PTC-NINE Alternate Tracking Map

PTC-NINE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PTC-NINE can be found here:

PTC-NINE spaghetti models page »

PTC-NINE Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-NINE Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-NINE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241151
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
 
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 83.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood 
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line 

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required today.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
19.2 North, longitude 83.5 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across
the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches.  Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches.  This rainfall brings a risk of
considerable flooding.
 
Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with
minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
 
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early
Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in
southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida
Panhandle.
 
SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days.  Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-NINE Forecast Discussion

279 
WTNT44 KNHC 240859
TCDAT4
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Satellite images indicate that the system remains poorly organized. 
A large area of deep convection is on the eastern side of the broad 
circulation with no defined central features, and dropsondes 
from the Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that low-level 
circulation remains poorly defined.  The initial wind speed is kept 
at 30 kt, in agreement with many dropsondes around that value.  

The best estimate of initial motion is northwestward at about 7 kt. 
This general motion is expected today while the disturbance moves 
around a high-pressure area over the southeastern United States.  
The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward on Wednesday as 
the high shifts eastward ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into 
the south-central United States.  This evolution of the steering 
pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to 
north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the 
northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday.  The biggest change to the 
model guidance overnight is that the guidance mean is a bit slower, 
with the GFS model faster than most of the aids.  However, this 
remains a very consistent set of models, and very little overall 
change was made to the official forecast.  Hopefully an ongoing NOAA 
G-IV aircraft mission will help provide useful data for any future 
track refinements.

Southwesterly shear continues over the disturbance, though the 
models are insistent that this shear will abate as an upper-level 
low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula weakens today and 
tomorrow.  Otherwise, conditions look quite favorable for 
strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and 
Thursday, with the system likely moving over extremely deep and 
warm waters, along with a favorable trough interaction, and many of 
the forecast aids are showing rapid intensification over the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The intensity guidance is very close to 
the previous NHC intensity forecast and continues to indicate that 
this system will become quite large and powerful before landfall.
 
Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind, 
and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, 
particularly on the east side.  In addition, the fast 
forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in 
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the 
southeastern United States after landfall.  Hurricane and Storm 
Surge Watches have been issued this morning, and further watches 
and warnings are likely later today.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early 
Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
 
2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before 
it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, and the 
potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging 
hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and 
the Florida west gulf coast is increasing.  Hurricane and Storm 
Surge Watches have been issued, and residents should ensure they 
have their hurricane plan in place, and also follow advice given by 
local officials. 
 
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding
and mudslides across western Cuba.  Heavy rainfall will likely
result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding
possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated
moderate river flooding will be possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 18.9N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  24/1800Z 19.6N  84.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  25/0600Z 20.7N  85.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 22.0N  86.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 24.3N  85.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 27.8N  84.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 31.9N  83.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 96H  28/0600Z 38.5N  85.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

PTC-NINE storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

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