Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

English Español Deutsch Français 日本語

This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

ONE-E Current Status

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH at

ONE-E Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
Belize
El Salvador
Informes Especiales

ONE-E Tracker

ONE-E Satellite Loop

ONE-E Alternate Tracking Map

ONE-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for ONE-E can be found here:

ONE-E spaghetti models page »

ONE-E Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression ONE-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory

790 
WTPZ31 KNHC 260833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012019
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 108.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 108.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A
westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today.  The system is forecast to begin weakening on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 260834
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012019
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

The overall convective pattern of the cyclone has changed little
since the previous advisory. However, passive microwave images
indicate that the low-level center has become less distinct and that
the inner-core convection has become ragged. In addition, the
coldest cloud tops have migrated from north through east to now
south of the center during the past 12 hours, another indication
that the inner-core of the depression is undergoing some structural
changes. Although no ASCAT wind data are available over the
cyclone's core, a 0417Z ASCAT-C pass did catch the western portion
of the circulation and only showed northerly winds of 5-10 kt within
30 nmi of the center, which suggests that the surface wind field
might not be as well developed as the circulation aloft is.

The initial position and the 275/13-kt motion are based on a blend
of microwave and conventional fixes, and also continuity with the
previous motion vector. The latest track model guidance is in decent
agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion accompanied by
a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next few days as a
strong deep-layer subtropical ridge holds steady to the north of the
cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but south of the
previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial
position. As mentioned in the previous forecast package, the 00Z
ECMWF model continues to show a more southward dip in the track
during the next 24 h. That is a viable alternate track scenario if
the center redevelops farther south closer to the coldest
overshooting cloud tops later this morning.

There is a narrow window of opportunity for the system to strengthen
into a tropical storm during the next 24 h or so while the cyclone
remains over warm water and in low vertical wind shear conditions.
By 36-48 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over sub-26C SSTs
and into a more stable environment that is not conducive for
generating vigorous convection despite the favorable low-shear
conditions forecast at that time. The combination of cooler waters,
drier mid-level air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear shear
are expected to induce steady weakening in 48-96 hours, with
dissipation forecast by 120 h. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and follows the IVCN and ICON
intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 15.5N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 15.6N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 16.4N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 17.0N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0600Z 18.8N 123.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

ONE-E storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 15.5, -108.3
35 knots 15.6, -110.3
35 knots 15.8, -112.7
35 knots 16.4, -114.9
30 knots 17.0, -116.9
20 knots 18.1, -120.4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
20 knots 18.8, -123.8 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
0 knots translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


Hurricane Forecast   |   Tropical Storm Risk   |   Hurricane Spaghetti Models   |   Cyclone and Hurricane Names

Cyclocane   |   National Hurricane Center   |   Joint Typhoon Warning Center   |   Japan Meteorological Agency

site by Hayley Croft

Want to help support this site?

Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane.

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.