Cyclocane

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ONE-E Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 80 knots / 90 MPH at 2022-05-30T12:00:00.000Z

ONE-E Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Tropical Depression One-E is expected produce heavy rains over portions of the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, and eastern Guerrero through Tuesday night. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible over portions of the southern Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco.

ONE-E Tracker

ONE-E Satellite Loop

ONE-E Alternate Tracking Map

ONE-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for ONE-E can be found here:

ONE-E spaghetti models page »

ONE-E Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression ONE-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory

962 
WTPZ31 KNHC 280248
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS...
...FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 97.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of 
the depression.  Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches will likely be 
required for portions of the coast of southern Mexico Saturday 
morning.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 97.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h).  This 
general motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, 
followed by a slow turn to the north later this weekend and then a 
slightly faster northeastward motion on Monday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to approach the coast 
of southern Mexico on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the 
cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm early Saturday and a 
hurricane on Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression One-E is expected produce heavy 
rains over portions of the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, 
Chiapas, and eastern Guerrero through Tuesday night.  Rainfall 
totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected with isolated maximum amounts 
of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides may occur.  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are 
expected with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible over 
portions of the southern Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion

813 
WTPZ41 KNHC 280249
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

The satellite presentation of the low pressure system that the NHC 
has been monitoring south of the southern coast of Mexico for the 
past several days has greatly improved this evening. Earlier 
microwave data and visible satellite imagery showed increased signs 
of curved convective bands wrapping around the low-level center. 
More recently, SSMIS microwave data suggest the inner-core structure 
of the cyclone has improved, and very cold infrared cloud tops have 
spread over the center. The system has achieved sufficient 
convective organization to be designated as the first depression of 
the 2022 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial 
intensity is set at 30 kt based on a subjective T2.0/30 kt Dvorak 
classification from TAFB, although the initial intensity is somewhat 
uncertain given the lack of recent scatterometer data.

The system is moving westward at 265/6 kt, and this general motion 
is expected to continue for the next 12 h or so. A deep-layer trough 
is forecast to amplify across the western U.S. this weekend, which 
will weaken the ridge to the north of the cyclone. This will allow 
the system to slowly turn northward on Sunday and then move 
northeastward on Monday as it approaches southern Mexico. The 
track models generally agree on this scenario, although the GFS is 
somewhat further east than the rest of the guidance. The official 
NHC forecast lies toward the center of the guidance envelope, 
roughly in between the HFIP corrected-consensus approach (HCCA) and 
the multi-model consensus aids.

Sea-surface temperatures greater than 30 deg C, weak deep-layer 
vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture are expected to 
support significant intensification of the cyclone this weekend. In 
fact, all of the intensity guidance shows steady strengthening 
during the next few days, and many models including the consensus 
aids bring the cyclone to hurricane intensity within 48 h. The GFS 
SHIPS-RII highlights the potential for rapid intensification of this 
system, with a 52 percent chance of a 35-kt intensification in 24 h. 
The official NHC intensity forecast shows steady strengthening 
during the next few days, with the cyclone becoming a hurricane by 
late Sunday with continued strengthening anticipated as it 
approaches the coast on Monday. This forecast lies between the IVCN 
and HCCA aids through 48-60 h, then falls on the higher end of the 
guidance at 72 h as the official forecast track remains just off the 
coast.

Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Watches will likely be required 
Saturday morning for portions of the coast of southern Mexico, and 
interests in this region should closely monitor the progress of this 
system.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and 
hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico 
early next week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely 
be required Saturday morning.  Interests in this area should closely 
monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast.

2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression One-E will 
develop over portions of southern Mexico this weekend and continue 
through Tuesday.  This will pose a threat of flash flooding and 
mudslides.  For more information, see products from your local 
weather office. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 12.8N  97.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 12.8N  98.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 13.2N  98.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 13.7N  98.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 14.2N  98.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 14.7N  98.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 15.7N  96.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  01/0000Z 17.2N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ONE-E storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

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