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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH at
Spaghetti models for OMA can be found here:
WTPS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 28.2S 161.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 161.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 27.9S 162.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 161.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND A FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC HOWEVER THEY ARE LESS DEFINED THAN THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) DUE TO THE 221039Z ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED 35-40 KNOT WIND BARBS. IN THE HOURS SINCE THE ASCAT PASS THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH COOL (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES TO PREVENT A RAPID DISSIPATION TREND. TC 15P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE STR BUILDING IN WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS PREVENTING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE. ADDITIONAL FACTORS INCLUDING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SUSTAINED STRONG VWS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EQUATORWARD TURN WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 19 FEET.// NNNN
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
35 knots | -28.2, 161.4 | dissipating | |
30 knots | -27.9, 162.5 | dissipated |
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