Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.

Go to the main page to see active storms.

OMA Current Status

Current Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH at

OMA Land Hazards

Vanuatu
Marine Wind Warning
Severe Weather Warning
Tropical Low Information
TL Forecast Track Map
American Samoa / Samoa américaines
Flash Flood Warning
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory
Fiji / Fidji
Solomon Islands / îles Salomon
New Caledonia / Nouvelle-Calédonie
Pas de bulletin de suivi de vigilance

OMA Tracker

OMA Satellite Loop

OMA Alternate Tracking Map

OMA Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for OMA can be found here:

OMA spaghetti models page »

OMA Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA Public Advisory

WTPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z --- NEAR 28.2S 161.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 161.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 27.9S 162.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND A 
FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED 
LLCC. THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
LLCC HOWEVER THEY ARE LESS DEFINED THAN THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE PGTW 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) DUE TO THE 221039Z 
ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED 35-40 KNOT WIND BARBS. IN THE HOURS SINCE 
THE ASCAT PASS THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF 
STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, IS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE, AND IS 
TRACKING THROUGH COOL (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES TO PREVENT A RAPID DISSIPATION TREND. TC 15P 
IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED DUE TO THE STRONG 
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE 
SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE STR BUILDING IN WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS PREVENTING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING, 
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE. ADDITIONAL FACTORS INCLUDING DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SUSTAINED STRONG VWS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION 
OVER WATER BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON THE EQUATORWARD TURN WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING 
AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. 
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 19 FEET.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

OMA storm path from JTWC

Time Speed Location Status
35 knots -28.2, 161.4 dissipating
30 knots -27.9, 162.5 dissipated


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