( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH at
Spaghetti models for OLGA can be found here:
000 WTNT32 KNHC 260251 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 ...OLGA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 92.2W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings associated with this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). Olga is forecast to move quickly northward to north-northeastward on Saturday and then turn northeastward late Saturday or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will move up the Mississippi Valley tomorrow and toward the Great Lakes later this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected after the cyclone moves over land Saturday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and surface observations over the northern Gulf of Mexico is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds associated with Olga and its remnants should spread over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The post-tropical cyclone, along with rainfall ahead of the system along and north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast, is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley through Saturday morning. These rains may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley. COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast. Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for additional information. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Saturday morning across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and western Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Additional information about heavy rainfall and wind gusts can be found in storm summary products issued by the Weather Prediction Center at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
000 WTNT42 KNHC 260253 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Earlier this evening, the last 2 passes through Olga made by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the cyclone becoming embedded within a cold front. Strong northwesterly flow was observed within 10 n mi northwest of Olga's center and a sharp temperature and dew point gradient was measured across the cyclone. It does not appear that Olga has separated from the front in any significant way since the plane left. In fact, recent surface observations suggest that either the front passes through the center of the cyclone or its circulation has become poorly defined. Based on all these data, Olga is now classified as post-tropical and this is the last NHC advisory. Since Olga is entangled with the front, the winds and seas associated the front are now considered to be representative of the overall system. The intensity of the post-tropical cyclone is set at 45 kt based on SFMR winds of 48 kt and flight-level winds of 54 kt found by the plane behind the front. No substantial change in Olga's strength is anticipated before it reaches the coast Saturday morning, and the winds should decrease quickly thereafter. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to move quickly up the Mississippi Valley on Saturday, before turning northeastward toward the Great Lakes late Saturday or early Sunday. Dissipation is anticipated before the end of the weekend. Severe weather, including heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes will be the primary hazard associated with post-tropical Olga as it races northward. Coastal flooding is also possible tonight along portions of the Louisiana coast. For more information specific to your area, please see products from your local weather service office at weather.gov. Key messages: 1. Olga is now a post-tropical cyclone. Detailed information about hazards related to wind, rainfall, coastal flooding, and tornadoes can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 27.8N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/1200Z 31.8N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 27/0000Z 38.0N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/1200Z 43.5N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
|45 knots||27.8, -92.2||translation missing: en.POST-TROPICAL|
|35 knots||31.8, -90.4||POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE|
|30 knots||38.0, -88.5||POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE|
|30 knots||43.5, -83.5||POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE|
|0 knots||translation missing: en.DISSIPATED|
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