Cyclocane

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

NINE Current Status

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY...

Current Wind Speed 26 knots / 30 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 75 knots / 85 MPH at

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

current radar loop

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

NINE Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Melbourne FL AL092019 **TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 HAS FORMED NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA**

NINE Tracker

NINE Satellite Loop

NINE Alternate Tracking Map

NINE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for NINE can be found here:

NINE spaghetti models page »

NINE Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression NINE Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 132344
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 74.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 74.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday, with a
slower northward motion forecast to occur on Sunday.  On the
forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and offshore of the east
coast of Florida this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday and a hurricane in
a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by early Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are still possible in the watch area on the Florida
peninsula by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce these total rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
and effect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week.  These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 132043
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

An Air Force plane extensively investigated the disturbance near the
Bahamas during the past several hours, and in the last portion of
the mission, the crew was able to locate a center of circulation,
although weak, near the convection.  The center was a little bit
to the east of the previous estimates. Satellite images also
indicate that the cloud pattern has become a little better organized
and Dvorak estimates are T2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. On this basis, the disturbance has been classified as
a tropical depression with 25 kt winds.

Conditions are not ideal for strengthening since the depression
is still embedded within a moderate shear environment, but
this parameter is not expected to be strong enough to halt
additional development. The NHC forecast still calls for this system
to become a tropical storm on Saturday with gradual intensification
thereafter.  Global models insist on further development, and the
reliable guidance suggests that the cyclone could even reach
hurricane intensity in about 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast.
By then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic waters well
southeast of the coast of the Carolinas.

Due to the reformation of the apparent center, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 305
degrees at 7 kt.   A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic
is forecast to develop, and this pattern should steer the system
slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an
eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve
away from the coast toward the Atlantic.  The track guidance has
shifted to the east again, and this shift is larger due to the
eastward formation of the center. Consequently, the NHC track
forecast was adjusted in that direction, but it remains on the
western edge of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm within
the next 24 hours and will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds
and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas later
today and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the
northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. The system could still bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Florida east coast. Residents there should monitor
the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local
officials.

3. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this
weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. The chance of heavy rainfall affecting coastal North
Carolina early next week continues to diminish.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 25.6N  75.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 26.2N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 27.4N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 28.8N  78.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 30.0N  78.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 31.5N  76.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 32.0N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 32.5N  68.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

NINE storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
26 knots 25.6, -74.8
30 knots 26.2, -76.0
35 knots 27.4, -77.6
45 knots 28.8, -78.5
55 knots 30.0, -78.8
65 knots 31.5, -76.5
70 knots 32.0, -73.0
75 knots 32.5, -68.0


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