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NIGEL Current Status

Current Wind Speed 80 knots / 90 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 80 knots / 90 MPH at 2023-09-21T03:00:00.000Z

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

NIGEL Land Hazards

• SURF - Swells generated by Nigel currently affecting Bermuda will gradually subside through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NIGEL Tracker

NIGEL Satellite Loop

NIGEL Alternate Tracking Map

NIGEL Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for NIGEL can be found here:

NIGEL spaghetti models page »

NIGEL Watches and Warnings

Hurricane NIGEL Tropical Cyclone Update

Hurricane NIGEL Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 210236
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nigel Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2023
 
...NIGEL ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 50.4W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nigel was located
near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 50.4 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and is expected to
accelerate northeastward over the next day or two.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Nigel currently affecting Bermuda will
gradually subside through Thursday.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Hurricane NIGEL Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 210237
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2023
 
Geostationary satellite imagery shows Nigel's outflow being
impinged upon by an upstream trough.  Still, the hurricane has
maintained its large, ragged eye surrounded by deep convection
with cloud top temperatures ranging from -60 to -70 degrees C.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T4.5/77 kt,
and the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory.
 
The hurricane has begun to accelerate northeastward at an estimated
045/22 kt.  Nigel's forward speed is expected to increase through
Friday in the flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough exiting the
northeast US coast.  By the weekend, global models show Nigel
interacting with a large extratropical system over the North
Atlantic.  Little changes have been made to the latest NHC forecast,
which is largely an update of the previous prediction.
 
Nigel is nearing the 26 degree isotherm and should cross over it
in a few hours.  Deep-layer vertical wind shear is also expected to
increase significantly over the next 24 hours.  Nigel should begin
to transition into an extratropical cyclone soon, and this process
is expected to be complete in about 48 hours.  The official
intensity prediction shows gradual weakening through day 2, and
Nigel is forecast to become a powerful extratropical cyclone on
Friday.  By the end of the forecast period, Nigel should be absorbed
by the larger mid-latitude cyclone mentioned previously.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 39.0N  50.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 41.2N  46.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 44.2N  39.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 47.3N  31.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 50.9N  25.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  23/1200Z 54.9N  22.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0000Z 56.6N  22.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  25/0000Z 58.0N  23.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

NIGEL storm path from NHC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2023-09-21T03:00:00.000Z	80 knots	39.0, -50.4
2023-09-21T12:00:00.000Z	75 knots	41.2, -46.4
2023-09-22T00:00:00.000Z	70 knots	44.2, -39.1
2023-09-22T12:00:00.000Z	60 knots	47.3, -31.2
2023-09-23T00:00:00.000Z	50 knots	50.9, -25.4	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2023-09-23T12:00:00.000Z	50 knots	54.9, -22.8	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2023-09-24T00:00:00.000Z	45 knots	56.6, -22.8	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2023-09-25T00:00:00.000Z	40 knots	58.0, -23.0	POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
2023-09-26T00:00:00.000Z	0 knots		translation missing: en.DISSIPATED

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